TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alexander Donskiof Alexander Donski, Edward Winter
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$157,375
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$172,527

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,375 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 245 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Alexander Donski37c11,384$4,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,167.88,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3695…c66cbacked Edward Winter40c6,554$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6006549.2%32 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4340…363dbacked Edward Winter35c4,113$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,447.7418445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Alexander Donski51c4,046$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,995.171,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Alexander Donski27c3,883$1,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,834.591,22753.2%653 W · 574 L-5.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Edward Winter55c3,726$2,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,035.158,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa724…7bdabacked Edward Winter73c3,550$2,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,591.2929754.5%162 W · 135 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Alexander Donski28c3,132$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,270.951,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Edward Winter75c3,043$2,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,270.7113946.8%65 W · 74 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Edward Winter73c3,000$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,189.9957842.4%245 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Edward Winter35c2,976$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.316,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Edward Winter79c2,400$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900.094,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacf8…e791backed Alexander Donski51c2,098$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.3933037.3%123 W · 207 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb450…1c12backed Alexander Donski68c2,033$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.412846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7c2…73bfbacked Alexander Donski68c1,761$1,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.22147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alexander Donski72c1,583$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.627,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Alexander Donski63c1,583$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.334,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Alexander Donski59c1,555$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.931,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Edward Winter74c1,351$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00062956.9%358 W · 271 L+0.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1bf…e36bbacked Alexander Donski37c1,343$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.344117.1%7 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39f8…badabacked Alexander Donski37c1,315$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.58537.6%32 W · 53 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Alexander Donski37c1,309$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.1191755.5%509 W · 408 L+2.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Alexander Donski66c1,292$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.864,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Edward Winter35c1,133$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40087337.1%324 W · 549 L-3.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf1…99d3backed Alexander Donski50c1,038$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.9938652.3%202 W · 184 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Alexander Donski26c999.77$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.8385634.2%293 W · 563 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Edward Winter80c999.53$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.629,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Alexander Donski27c803.7$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.771725.2%181 W · 536 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Alexander Donski56c766.31$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.466,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc26a…b715backed Alexander Donski27c729.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.1957321.8%125 W · 448 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Edward Winter46c726.25$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.893,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Alexander Donski63c723.89$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.682,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfcf…7ddfbacked Alexander Donski69c721.6$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.0311158.6%65 W · 46 L-0.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dfe…a5d6backed Alexander Donski28c716.21$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.2150458.9%297 W · 207 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf706…f685backed Edward Winter65c658.36$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43115261.2%93 W · 59 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffef…dabfbacked Alexander Donski69c604.97$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.5415754.8%86 W · 71 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Edward Winter33c576.95$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.1859253.5%317 W · 275 L+22.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Edward Winter35c544.97$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.7158048.4%281 W · 299 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84bc…4aadbacked Edward Winter43c526.91$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.4224245%109 W · 133 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Alexander Donski51c513.48$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.738,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d46…3e2dbacked Alexander Donski70c510.23$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.729631.3%30 W · 66 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Edward Winter73c502.58$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.633,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ec6…50cdbacked Alexander Donski74c500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1307047.1%33 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Edward Winter80c500$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Alexander Donski35c488.93$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.172,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa99f…164bbacked Alexander Donski42c481.4$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.5927528.4%78 W · 197 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-7.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x287d…38febacked Alexander Donski28c443.67$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.5137421.9%82 W · 292 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Edward Winter42c439.85$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.85,41648.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L+14.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7906…be5dbacked Alexander Donski36c432$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.989058.9%53 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2542…7821backed Edward Winter70c431.23$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020749.8%103 W · 104 L-13.5wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d74…f2abbacked Edward Winter70c413.93$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29043334.9%151 W · 282 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x890a…7623backed Edward Winter73c410.96$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30024975.5%188 W · 61 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbad…4f53backed Alexander Donski42c410.41$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.0535444.6%158 W · 196 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20b4…bfa2backed Edward Winter74c405.41$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30033540.9%137 W · 198 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Alexander Donski61c404.36$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.711237.5%42 W · 70 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Edward Winter74c400$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2961,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef29…2f1ebacked Edward Winter78c385.32$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.071,11145.3%503 W · 608 L-35.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x508f…775fbacked Alexander Donski77c380.15$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.152045%9 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Alexander Donski26c377.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.475,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Alexander Donski48c371.53$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.6680153.1%425 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a70…76b5backed Alexander Donski35c370.99$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.2917646%81 W · 95 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed Edward Winter54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20035955.7%200 W · 159 L+20.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f24…e803backed Edward Winter37c365.39$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13511255.4%62 W · 50 L+7.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1435backed Edward Winter54c365.33$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.8239035.9%140 W · 250 L-61.1wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-43.1%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x1f64…3633backed Edward Winter73c343.79$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.3299249.4%490 W · 502 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Alexander Donski73c318.56$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.471,22841.1%505 W · 723 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf5b…5d3abacked Edward Winter63c317.23$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003174.2%23 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Edward Winter72c304.4$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.4358745.7%268 W · 319 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Edward Winter21c295.59$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4411,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Edward Winter61c295.48$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.2316552.7%87 W · 78 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…5c4cbacked Edward Winter69c289.25$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.585248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf59b…7ab0backed Alexander Donski35c283.98$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.543737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Alexander Donski67c280.72$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.585348.7%415 W · 438 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Alexander Donski67c280.72$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.565952.5%346 W · 313 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4aa7…736ebacked Edward Winter19c277.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.551631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d3e…061cbacked Edward Winter48c270.15$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12910143.6%44 W · 57 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Edward Winter66c266.92$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.01742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x34b8…81afbacked Alexander Donski79c261$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.623946.2%18 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Edward Winter63c248.14$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.5726921.2%57 W · 212 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Edward Winter72c243$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.967,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Alexander Donski66c228.77$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.634,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Alexander Donski37c226$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.5256744.6%253 W · 314 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Alexander Donski58c222.58$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.051,85357.7%1,069 W · 784 L+106.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Alexander Donski59c221.77$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.842359.1%250 W · 173 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6195…388abacked Alexander Donski70c219$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.718850%94 W · 94 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98bd…8a55backed Alexander Donski73c218.14$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.778845.5%40 W · 48 L-9.5wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-18.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Alexander Donski70c216.79$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2949252.4%258 W · 234 L+28.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+34.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4c9…8803backed Alexander Donski37c202.17$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.2413743.1%59 W · 78 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdf5…d359backed Alexander Donski35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1305127.5%14 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1132…5a2fbacked Alexander Donski70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Edward Winter77c190.1$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.884,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Edward Winter58c188.08$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.214,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked Edward Winter54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10036657.7%211 W · 155 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Alexander Donski70c181$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.381457%464 W · 350 L+19.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Edward Winter37c179.69$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.941,35443.9%595 W · 759 L-62.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6cf4…15a4backed Alexander Donski42c179.42$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.42933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x561d…4134backed Edward Winter37c176.35$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6644949.4%222 W · 227 L+23.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Edward Winter72c173$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.561,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Alexander Donski62c170.07$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.166,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91fc…7d44backed Alexander Donski59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.492050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.