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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: DYNASTY vs Inner Circle (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
DYNASTYof DYNASTY, Inner Circle
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$282,550
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$322,055

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $282,550 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 297 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6373…a0b7backed DYNASTY56c34,696$19,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,419.115125.8%39 W · 112 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-2.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Inner Circle53c21,067$11,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,079.7890741.2%374 W · 533 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed Inner Circle49c15,000$7,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,322.0948046.5%223 W · 257 L+27.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Inner Circle55c14,966$8,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,224.281,20242.8%514 W · 688 L+38.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Inner Circle66c9,815$6,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,503.1880955.9%452 W · 357 L+21.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3f…5e0dbacked DYNASTY68c8,763$5,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,821.447979.7%63 W · 16 L+11.6wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+22%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x948a…d1a4backed Inner Circle57c5,604$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20024654.9%135 W · 111 L+14.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Inner Circle49c5,472$2,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,706.6548650.8%247 W · 239 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b13…0263backed DYNASTY62c5,130$3,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,968.185565.5%36 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed DYNASTY74c4,511$3,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.2648657.4%279 W · 207 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f04…1fb0backed DYNASTY67c4,060$2,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.9212058.3%70 W · 50 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85e9…2eeabacked DYNASTY39c3,448$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,106.447367.1%49 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d59…8b19backed DYNASTY43c3,366$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,927.844942.9%21 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed DYNASTY42c3,304$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,912.6648249.2%237 W · 245 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed Inner Circle1c3,296$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.413432.9%10 W · 333 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-58.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d70…210bbacked DYNASTY39c3,220$1,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9612157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked DYNASTY22c3,023$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,352.5770435.4%249 W · 455 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed Inner Circle45c3,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.9833144.7%148 W · 183 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cf7…8c87backed DYNASTY34c2,688$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,786.861369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+46.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb6b8…149bbacked DYNASTY37c2,672$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,694.1710746.7%50 W · 57 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed Inner Circle67c2,608$1,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750.5920251.5%104 W · 98 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked DYNASTY69c2,596$1,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.1537160.4%224 W · 147 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Inner Circle41c2,581$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.466844.1%30 W · 38 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Inner Circle54c2,267$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.2841755.6%232 W · 185 L+42.0wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+20.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed DYNASTY28c2,221$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,591.3970433.1%233 W · 471 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked DYNASTY46c2,213$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.6779741.9%334 W · 463 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked DYNASTY48c2,068$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.7168847.4%326 W · 362 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Inner Circle68c2,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.2962155.9%347 W · 274 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3bc…5bd2backed DYNASTY42c1,794$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.714044.3%62 W · 78 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd0e6…4c4ebacked Inner Circle3c1,750$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked DYNASTY47c1,684$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.0290638.4%348 W · 558 L-40.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x249e…4fa6backed DYNASTY46c1,683$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.218349.7%91 W · 92 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed DYNASTY32c1,682$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.851,25044.4%555 W · 695 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked DYNASTY40c1,665$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.592756.5%524 W · 403 L+79.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe694…0a08backed Inner Circle48c1,656$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.9818851.6%97 W · 91 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e8…9490backed Inner Circle3c1,613$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Inner Circle56c1,600$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89658548.5%284 W · 301 L+31.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4858…3dd3backed DYNASTY44c1,600$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.66666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5d9…b188backed DYNASTY44c1,562$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.7310855.6%60 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed DYNASTY60c1,558$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.4851548.9%252 W · 263 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked DYNASTY27c1,506$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.8120928.2%59 W · 150 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed DYNASTY37c1,500$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94192553.6%496 W · 429 L+51.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Inner Circle70c1,500$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05049854.8%273 W · 225 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x581d…3458backed DYNASTY32c1,405$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+210.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd19e…d70ebacked DYNASTY32c1,388$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.521660.6%131 W · 85 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3e5…519dbacked DYNASTY76c1,377$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.2713064.6%84 W · 46 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked DYNASTY32c1,344$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.2132237.3%120 W · 202 L-1.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd677…7579backed Inner Circle77c1,322$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.57425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-65.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x47e8…efdcbacked Inner Circle59c1,293$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.4219855.6%110 W · 88 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc83…08f4backed Inner Circle49c1,274$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.936759.7%40 W · 27 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked DYNASTY61c1,200$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.051,15847.7%552 W · 606 L-12.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5bc…57cfbacked DYNASTY55c1,014$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.1475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+36.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabd9…dc3abacked DYNASTY44c1,002$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.0919835.9%71 W · 127 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc70…8be9backed DYNASTY45c1,000$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55226653.8%143 W · 123 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…7275backed Inner Circle43c1,000$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.26547.7%31 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f41…547cbacked DYNASTY42c999.99$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.1113544.4%60 W · 75 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb4…74c5backed DYNASTY76c926.89$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.051457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4eb…d3f0backed DYNASTY27c925.92$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b0…87e4backed DYNASTY27c925.92$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.92475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick27cpaid+176.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8d19…e27cbacked DYNASTY47c886.3$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.8713548.1%65 W · 70 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x282c…dd8ebacked DYNASTY51c824.71$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf52…efdfbacked DYNASTY58c790.29$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.6321759%128 W · 89 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked Inner Circle4c766.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.370752.5%371 W · 336 L+48.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b51…cf1ebacked Inner Circle77c753.21$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+38.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0160…c757backed Inner Circle4c749.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ed…1ea1backed Inner Circle78c716.46$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.948142%34 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed DYNASTY48c712.33$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.738732.8%127 W · 260 L-13.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked DYNASTY55c695.06$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.7444649.6%221 W · 225 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91b9…889fbacked DYNASTY66c684.63$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.2810044%44 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed03…1caabacked Inner Circle77c671$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.674746.8%22 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe46d…7e4dbacked Inner Circle57c666$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.627254.2%39 W · 33 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91a2…e415backed DYNASTY31c655.99$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.323135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed DYNASTY66c640.77$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.394052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked DYNASTY50c552.93$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.8257545.2%260 W · 315 L-17.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Inner Circle55c521.35$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.7497042.2%409 W · 561 L-20.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd41a…aa9fbacked DYNASTY42c505.88$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.9425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-41.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x975d…cc7abacked DYNASTY40c501.32$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.32944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1570…1404backed Inner Circle68c499.99$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked Inner Circle66c491.87$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.4225446.9%119 W · 135 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked DYNASTY51c489.04$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.8413033.1%43 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-39.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked Inner Circle56c485.49$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.72616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-76.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27ec…e521backed Inner Circle61c483.81$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ee…ffe2backed Inner Circle67c446.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004351.2%22 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed DYNASTY39c443.37$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.8214248.6%69 W · 73 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1004…7800backed DYNASTY40c440.06$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.06250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ad1…dc59backed DYNASTY42c436.3$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.133100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+168.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1028…f3fcbacked Inner Circle46c420$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1923743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e13…af03backed DYNASTY27c419.69$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.37650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+83.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86ee…ef1fbacked Inner Circle64c415.81$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2687965.8%52 W · 27 L+7.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x02f0…9bb3backed DYNASTY45c404$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.1410548.6%51 W · 54 L+9.4wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+38.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x054e…9b8fbacked DYNASTY45c403.46$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.462100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+121.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8e…37d1backed DYNASTY38c400$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c81…5518backed DYNASTY36c400$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.826240.3%25 W · 37 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed DYNASTY25c400$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3009147.3%43 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed DYNASTY28c394.71$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.51,27049.6%630 W · 640 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf848…8c59backed Inner Circle44c372.55$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.151428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-45.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xafcb…df99backed DYNASTY48c370.98$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd747…076cbacked Inner Circle75c369.87$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf072…d897backed Inner Circle41c369.24$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.8812948.1%62 W · 67 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Inner Circle8c366.91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.356121.3%13 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.