TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
REKONIXof Execration, REKONIX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,125
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,741

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,125 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d58…9a15backed Execration34c10,700$3,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,644.114840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed REKONIX66c4,791$3,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,648.192356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked REKONIX52c4,246$2,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,019.423256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Execration1c3,887$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.86169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5773…dc71backed Execration45c3,500$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,574.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-26.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed REKONIX40c2,750$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,65019148.7%93 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed REKONIX54c2,623$1,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.2925444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked REKONIX54c2,019$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.2786949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Execration54c1,965$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.0219147.6%91 W · 100 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7daf…0ec8backed REKONIX51c1,436$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.744854.2%26 W · 22 L+6.4wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+34.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked REKONIX41c1,220$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.5141055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked Execration55c1,020$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.825547.8%122 W · 133 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Execration60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6005339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.5wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-31.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Execration50c820.69$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.3599844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed REKONIX40c765.59$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.4146535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed REKONIX43c690.23$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.2229245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Execration4c569.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.93561.8%1 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-77%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f79…1db4backed REKONIX64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd50c…76c3backed Execration41c489.27$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016243.5%27 W · 35 L-8.0wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-28.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x334d…45c4backed Execration41c460.17$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.42837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Execration62c459.52$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.955157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked REKONIX51c403.16$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.2160646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20b2…f114backed Execration51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20415131.8%48 W · 103 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14dc…ffa1backed Execration50c398$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked REKONIX40c369.28$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.417243.1%31 W · 41 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Execration54c360.41$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.124445.5%20 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed Execration9c352.38$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.513212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd737…d351backed Execration75c352.01$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.01633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick71cpaid-49.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Execration49c305.72$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.8173841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Execration9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27613.3%2 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-61%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked Execration10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307226.4%19 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed REKONIX40c247.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.617342.8%74 W · 99 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdd0…b94cbacked REKONIX66c244.63$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.432166.7%14 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3647…6250backed Execration59c236.6$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.017538.7%29 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Execration57c228.3$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.7946664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58f1…7032backed REKONIX66c208.16$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.2529550.2%148 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Execration60c202$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.254753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8960…4069backed REKONIX57c200.01$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Execration39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7864123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed REKONIX62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768648.8%42 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Execration17c184.6$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5652243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked REKONIX35c156.17$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.4633945.1%153 W · 186 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x545e…0185backed Execration22c150$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.590%0 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed REKONIX60c130$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5267853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked REKONIX44c113.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6458152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked REKONIX66c111.94$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.062,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Execration55c85.37$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.95837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked REKONIX50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4016665.7%109 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd11…79a5backed REKONIX65c80$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282171.4%15 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc29d…3352backed REKONIX66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.762450%12 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85b2…0ab9backed Execration71c74.82$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.847753.2%41 W · 36 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce6f…778fbacked Execration77c73.55$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.861662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddd…d755backed Execration60c66.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404360.5%26 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9c7…007dbacked Execration45c62.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.52564%16 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f19…325ebacked Execration66c61.8$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.79250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Execration55c60.21$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.270236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Execration60c60$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3613657.4%78 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf3…50d9backed Execration51c59.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307936.7%29 W · 50 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0919…fcbcbacked REKONIX38c57.85$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.871526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick36cpaid+76.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6365…df4ebacked REKONIX47c53.62$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6222538.7%87 W · 138 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf624…d3b4backed Execration60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a34…c30ebacked REKONIX39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+108.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Execration54c45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.349133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b84…de18backed REKONIX62c42.13$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b47…25d3backed Execration49c41.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.136334.9%22 W · 41 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-25.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Execration51c40.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9761548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c1…e644backed REKONIX51c39.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.61747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc20b…ba2fbacked Execration73c35.34$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2bf…ceeabacked REKONIX46c35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.91844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4883…98abbacked REKONIX72c34.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ea…46f5backed Execration49c32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b56…d1e1backed REKONIX66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.33100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d8f…6c00backed REKONIX42c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+103.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5acc…89e0backed Execration50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.06633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-55.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf426…5181backed REKONIX43c29.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79d1…f1a3backed REKONIX41c27.09$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.07540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7719…80b6backed Execration72c26.74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.251080%8 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b64…d59ebacked REKONIX50c25.76$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74c3…d3b3backed Execration80c25.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.25366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick80cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c4…b832backed Execration61c24.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152763%17 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfac6…cea2backed REKONIX65c23.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc393…590abacked REKONIX44c22.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8723849.6%118 W · 120 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0247…bb07backed REKONIX69c21.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8512…e70ebacked REKONIX60c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a6d…cab5backed Execration75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ce6…de1fbacked Execration63c17.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9460%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.