Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Matteo Arnaldi vs Andrey Rublev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39773ce709b51bc38a3a496994a984a05c3696cd62b45f1b51919b7e4bfe4702
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rublevof Arnaldi, Rublev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arnaldi | 19c | 14,626$2,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,826.26 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Arnaldi | 21c | 7,564$1,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588.35 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Arnaldi | 18c | 4,935$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.42 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Arnaldi | 17c | 4,452$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.32 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Arnaldi | 20c | 4,173$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.6 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Arnaldi | 0c | 3,879$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Arnaldi | 17c | 3,353$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.33 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Rublev | 76c | 3,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Arnaldi | 23c | 2,900$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.99 | 178 | 63.5%113 W · 65 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Rublev | 78c | 1,879$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.36 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Arnaldi | 5c | 1,333$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Arnaldi | 19c | 1,190$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.1 | 140 | 28.6%40 W · 100 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Rublev | 77c | 1,120$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.65 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Arnaldi | 18c | 936.24$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Arnaldi | 21c | 889.86$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.71 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Arnaldi | 8c | 841.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…e89abacked Rublev | 78c | 641.03$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.03 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Rublev | 76c | 499.99$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Rublev | 76c | 444$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.56 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x295f…f314backed Arnaldi | 24c | 416.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed Arnaldi | 19c | 399.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.12 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…3aecbacked Arnaldi | 19c | 367.86$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…61bdbacked Rublev | 80c | 320.58$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Arnaldi | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc669…53eabacked Rublev | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…f5ffbacked Rublev | 76c | 300$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Arnaldi | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Arnaldi | 23c | 259.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 1,161 | 44.3%514 W · 647 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed Rublev | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…5bc2backed Rublev | 78c | 257.21$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Rublev | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Arnaldi | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Arnaldi | 6c | 199.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Arnaldi | 21c | 194.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 2,444 | 51.3%1,254 W · 1,190 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed Rublev | 78c | 192.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…2bf7backed Arnaldi | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Arnaldi | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 375 | 44.3%166 W · 209 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…2509backed Rublev | 80c | 156.25$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…a5cebacked Rublev | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 75cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…6a47backed Rublev | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Arnaldi | 22c | 129.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…15e5backed Rublev | 78c | 128.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ad…6b4cbacked Rublev | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef6…582dbacked Rublev | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…8b7dbacked Arnaldi | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 270 | 37%100 W · 170 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Arnaldi | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 128 | 46.9%60 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…db14backed Rublev | 80c | 101.7$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 188 | 63.8%120 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked Rublev | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Arnaldi | 22c | 98.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…f23ebacked Arnaldi | 15c | 83.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Arnaldi | 16c | 73.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…ccb8backed Rublev | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…dc37backed Rublev | 77c | 66.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…67adbacked Rublev | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Rublev | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Arnaldi | 22c | 59.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…ea7bbacked Rublev | 77c | 57.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a9…35fcbacked Rublev | 77c | 53.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Arnaldi | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Arnaldi | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 363 | 49.9%181 W · 182 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Arnaldi | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Rublev | 77c | 49.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb490…91e7backed Rublev | 79c | 38.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Rublev | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…18f4backed Rublev | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74d…734cbacked Rublev | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 284 | 62.3%177 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…9d86backed Rublev | 78c | 27.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bec…37d3backed Rublev | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 142 | 72.5%103 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5f71backed Rublev | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Rublev | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…5cc2backed Rublev | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Rublev | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 930 | 48.8%454 W · 476 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…90a3backed Rublev | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 492 | 52.4%258 W · 234 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…566bbacked Rublev | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…1d27backed Rublev | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b0…b331backed Rublev | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ad…0a08backed Rublev | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 77cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Matteo Arnaldi vs Andrey Rublevthis page
- Arnaldi vs. Rublev: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Arnaldi vs. Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Arnaldi vs RublevRublev won
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5)Rublev won
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5)Rublev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.