TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Karmine Corp
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,707
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,865

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,707 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Natus Vincere49c16,845$8,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,565.0778162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Karmine Corp44c7,380$3,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,283.2854751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Karmine Corp44c2,901$1,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,282.4968458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4089…d9e6backed Karmine Corp18c2,180$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Karmine Corp43c1,946$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.2453159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere73c1,701$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.8153355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked Natus Vincere58c1,500$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6303666.7%24 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5181…b4a2backed Karmine Corp42c1,490$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.63545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Karmine Corp53c1,306$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.6694361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Karmine Corp48c1,113$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.1565559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d91…c930backed Natus Vincere62c1,039$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.7121257.1%121 W · 91 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Karmine Corp41c1,000$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40531153.1%165 W · 146 L+15.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Karmine Corp29c964.69$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.281,37647.1%648 W · 728 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Karmine Corp50c821.87$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.6556357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Natus Vincere62c800$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30421055.2%116 W · 94 L+10.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed Natus Vincere35c663.4$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.5722047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Karmine Corp49c610.16$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.5629151.5%150 W · 141 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Karmine Corp32c577$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.4230147.2%142 W · 159 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Karmine Corp38c512.39$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.7119157.1%109 W · 82 L+23.4wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+26.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked Karmine Corp42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2106338.1%24 W · 39 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Karmine Corp42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21024846%114 W · 134 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x681b…3d79backed Natus Vincere35c500$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3256339.7%25 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Karmine Corp38c499.98$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.9953442.1%225 W · 309 L-15.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Natus Vincere42c469.84$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.8768949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Karmine Corp20c410$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8214447.2%68 W · 76 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Karmine Corp47c403.32$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.5620840.9%85 W · 123 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf434…1db7backed Karmine Corp35c321.86$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.05425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb188…8be3backed Karmine Corp42c310.23$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.872025%5 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Karmine Corp39c250$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.54818.8%9 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Karmine Corp33c210.88$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.311,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae8e…08f9backed Natus Vincere53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9412157%69 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Natus Vincere60c178.63$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.5721048.1%101 W · 109 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Karmine Corp29c165.02$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1745033.8%152 W · 298 L-35.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3f08…e919backed Karmine Corp37c149.23$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3110630.2%32 W · 74 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Natus Vincere53c146.72$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.9616046.9%75 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87ed…b497backed Karmine Corp38c144$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.723441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Natus Vincere64c141.41$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3916842.3%71 W · 97 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc056…e188backed Natus Vincere76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.584564.4%29 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+23.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Natus Vincere63c128.81$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3778562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Karmine Corp34c104.71$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1557517.7%102 W · 473 L-71.7wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x0b60…5c4ebacked Natus Vincere36c99.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6410333%34 W · 69 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed Natus Vincere59c99.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4125347%119 W · 134 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96cb…75cbbacked Karmine Corp35c99.04$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6680%0 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Natus Vincere60c97.3$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.921,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b6b…58dcbacked Natus Vincere63c95.24$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.241560%9 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Natus Vincere70c88.96$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3415553.5%83 W · 72 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Karmine Corp31c86.45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.84641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe56a…2ba5backed Karmine Corp46c83.1$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383930.8%12 W · 27 L-7.5wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf9be…a0c1backed Karmine Corp28c75.78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0226436%95 W · 169 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Natus Vincere61c75.41$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4114152.5%74 W · 67 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+21.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf21d…2e9abacked Natus Vincere38c75$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5526758.8%157 W · 110 L+18.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xecd5…382fbacked Natus Vincere60c74.08$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.743100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b74…cbaebacked Natus Vincere47c70.48$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.657365.8%48 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Karmine Corp34c68.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.081,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Natus Vincere53c64$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.082356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Karmine Corp47c64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0823548.5%114 W · 121 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Natus Vincere44c62.64$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.971,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Natus Vincere53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.427847.1%131 W · 147 L+0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Natus Vincere43c59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.631,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Karmine Corp29c58.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.271,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e0…fe90backed Natus Vincere51c56.33$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.332825%7 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Karmine Corp43c56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.085253.8%28 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x877e…8c95backed Karmine Corp38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.839142.9%39 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadec…1cb0backed Karmine Corp46c49.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.042846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Karmine Corp24c48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4932261.5%198 W · 124 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc413…7f76backed Karmine Corp38c47.22$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Natus Vincere75c47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.821,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Natus Vincere63c43.91$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4424032.1%77 W · 163 L-18.7wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-34.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Karmine Corp26c43.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2940731.7%129 W · 278 L-13.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fb0…ed25backed Natus Vincere62c41.87$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.917745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Karmine Corp55c39.26$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7120248%97 W · 105 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Karmine Corp28c38.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8821641.7%90 W · 126 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a0e…b0babacked Natus Vincere53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.744854.2%26 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c03…ffcdbacked Karmine Corp35c35.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.642334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Karmine Corp57c34.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.866438.1%253 W · 411 L-31.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e43…45aabacked Karmine Corp45c34.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf885…d719backed Karmine Corp46c32.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.694060%24 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93dc…3728backed Natus Vincere59c23.54$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.544548.9%22 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5959…4c4cbacked Natus Vincere53c22.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.644339.5%17 W · 26 L-6.2wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-28%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x914a…38cdbacked Natus Vincere52c20.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+90.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6846…a82fbacked Karmine Corp59c17.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.623158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31fa…a8f4backed Natus Vincere67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.98865.9%58 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.