TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Karmine Corp
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,322
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$93,359

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,322 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Natus Vincere55c46,146$25,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,756.9778162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Karmine Corp45c7,456$3,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,347.0168458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Karmine Corp46c6,384$2,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,943.265559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Karmine Corp46c5,987$2,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,738.853159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Karmine Corp46c4,200$1,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,926.594361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Karmine Corp40c3,815$1,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.461,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Karmine Corp44c3,783$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,651.3430147.2%142 W · 159 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Karmine Corp46c3,480$1,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,586.6653355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Karmine Corp46c3,002$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.4956357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Karmine Corp41c2,927$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.2254751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Karmine Corp43c2,713$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.2420840.9%85 W · 123 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Natus Vincere55c2,470$1,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.6726050%130 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Karmine Corp42c2,213$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.5324946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed Natus Vincere58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84028548.4%138 W · 147 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Karmine Corp50c1,803$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.55253.8%28 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Karmine Corp42c1,750$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73541734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Natus Vincere59c1,696$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.611458.8%67 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Karmine Corp47c1,433$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.8829151.5%150 W · 141 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Natus Vincere58c1,416$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.3333153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Karmine Corp46c1,268$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.2378562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Karmine Corp48c1,179$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.0110455.8%58 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed Karmine Corp43c1,163$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50019847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1cc…3bf0backed Natus Vincere58c1,155$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.1712755.9%71 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Karmine Corp48c1,126$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.5611258%65 W · 47 L+12.8wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+25.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Karmine Corp42c1,047$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.2845250%226 W · 226 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Natus Vincere55c1,000$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.0428541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26e3…0b75backed Karmine Corp42c952.37$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010551.4%54 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Karmine Corp41c898.56$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.9331153.1%165 W · 146 L+15.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaf1…09b7backed Natus Vincere60c831.14$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.14757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Karmine Corp15c759$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.161,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Karmine Corp23c694.35$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.931,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Natus Vincere58c679.99$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.634954.7%191 W · 158 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ed…673ebacked Karmine Corp43c674.42$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf434…1db7backed Karmine Corp48c616.08$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.72425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd841…1c51backed Karmine Corp18c568.61$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Karmine Corp18c549$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7755152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Karmine Corp19c511.08$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7232462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6846…a82fbacked Karmine Corp47c509.77$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.923158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked Karmine Corp43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2156338.1%24 W · 39 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba58…6d74backed Natus Vincere58c500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21025555.7%142 W · 113 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d5…b5a4backed Natus Vincere66c499.99$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1701442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x115a…98e1backed Natus Vincere57c460.33$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.671957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Karmine Corp8c430.14$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.360022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4da5…e32ebacked Karmine Corp42c429.99$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.595957.6%34 W · 25 L+10.9wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+54.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb188…8be3backed Karmine Corp36c408.63$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.042025%5 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Karmine Corp42c397.5$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.1524032.1%77 W · 163 L-18.7wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-34.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe5c8…84a6backed Natus Vincere58c389.66$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6623151.9%120 W · 111 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Natus Vincere67c347$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.5477744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed Natus Vincere58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.833154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Karmine Corp26c302.48$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4835142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Karmine Corp42c300$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12686747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Karmine Corp50c298.03$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.0217353.8%93 W · 80 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed Natus Vincere50c270$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13510242.2%43 W · 59 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6808…899bbacked Natus Vincere56c267.86$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.86944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Natus Vincere51c250$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.536648.4%177 W · 189 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27e2…9535backed Karmine Corp23c248.9$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Karmine Corp42c239.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7918143.6%79 W · 102 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Natus Vincere62c224.36$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.2145033.8%152 W · 298 L-35.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed Karmine Corp49c220$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.534253.2%182 W · 160 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8f9…fee2backed Karmine Corp42c209.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.228247.5%134 W · 148 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4af7…2381backed Karmine Corp43c209.3$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Natus Vincere57c204.52$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.41,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e0e…8763backed Natus Vincere54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9211056.4%62 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb934…d9babacked Natus Vincere62c191.01$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.013053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Natus Vincere58c179.98$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5941537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Karmine Corp42c174.82$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.429443.6%41 W · 53 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1508…0648backed Natus Vincere58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.411450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf9b…2013backed Natus Vincere58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4118735.3%66 W · 121 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Karmine Corp43c170$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.116241.4%67 W · 95 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Karmine Corp43c162.79$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7042840%171 W · 257 L-22.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f08…e919backed Karmine Corp15c160.39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8610630.2%32 W · 74 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6628…05aebacked Karmine Corp43c160$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.87437.8%28 W · 46 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93af…32abbacked Karmine Corp44c156.84$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.156852.9%36 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6495…6cd7backed Natus Vincere58c155.17$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.172842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc365…635cbacked Karmine Corp45c142.57$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.366045%27 W · 33 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-19.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5489…1633backed Karmine Corp37c134.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Karmine Corp38c132.21$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5863652.7%335 W · 301 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe977…807ebacked Natus Vincere59c120$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Natus Vincere59c116.5$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.041,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18fe…bfdabacked Karmine Corp43c114.98$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.44728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Natus Vincere55c106.99$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1527847.1%131 W · 147 L+0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ee6…07cabacked Karmine Corp42c105$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.115160.3%91 W · 60 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6489…2ddfbacked Natus Vincere58c103.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.452962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+25.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked Natus Vincere65c102.18$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7121048.1%101 W · 109 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed Karmine Corp43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4313225%33 W · 99 L-18.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-48.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Karmine Corp42c99.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4214252.1%74 W · 68 L+11.5wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+20.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Karmine Corp32c99.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.341,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4627…7c23backed Natus Vincere59c98.31$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3122955%126 W · 103 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Natus Vincere61c92.98$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2732261.5%198 W · 124 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d46…7f85backed Natus Vincere56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.293073.3%22 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick62cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e43…45aabacked Karmine Corp18c86.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Karmine Corp16c82.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2430835.4%109 W · 199 L-23.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Karmine Corp35c79.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5442540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b74…cbaebacked Natus Vincere58c76.51$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.317365.8%48 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe9f…8e23backed Natus Vincere56c75.52$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.232657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+35.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Natus Vincere63c73.23$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.168949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d91…c930backed Karmine Corp45c70$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.521257.1%121 W · 91 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b1b…3d70backed Karmine Corp42c69.76$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.31741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9b4…40fcbacked Natus Vincere58c68.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.971861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Karmine Corp47c67.6$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9920248%97 W · 105 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.