Will Montenegro vs. Croatia end in a draw?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d5c5f870d27bc605671db051b8859623594939b731e5f78300b565c6bf01ade

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 17, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $37,629
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $36,576

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,629 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xeff7…4bb3backed Yes	57c	4,518$2,584 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,584.06	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked No	58c	3,420$1,986 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,433.87	73	54.8%40 W · 33 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No	54c	2,357$1,263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,093.7	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7087…c61fbacked Yes	20c	2,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No	75c	1,691$1,273 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$418.12	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No	55c	1,520$840 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$680.47	359	42.9%154 W · 205 L	-16.5wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-24%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No	53c	1,040$552 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$487.97	346	30.1%104 W · 242 L	-21.8wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88de…1091backed Yes	19c	1,000$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.14	210	16.7%35 W · 175 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x905b…edc4backed Yes	58c	783.07$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451.95	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fdb…62e0backed Yes	32c	694.11$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6840…6748backed Yes	67c	546.98$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.87	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	71cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4935…4662backed Yes	30c	490.8$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.8	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.17per pick	51cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d20…4b27backed Yes	31c	467.48$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.52	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe16c…6909backed Yes	30c	460$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Yes	22c	453.05$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.67	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	+3.3wins	+0.09per pick	37cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7580…cb71backed Yes	10c	434.9$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.49	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes	52c	386.06$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201	760	48.7%370 W · 390 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5a1…6877backed Yes	30c	376.19$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.61	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.14per pick	49cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed No	58c	367.82$213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.81	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	+3.5wins	+0.12per pick	54cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed No	80c	364.4$292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.88	170	48.2%82 W · 88 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked No	41c	353.35$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.48	51	49%25 W · 26 L	+13.7wins	+0.27per pick	22cpaid	+416.2%equal weight	70+0.18 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes	31c	322.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	360	38.1%137 W · 223 L	-15.1wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-14%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe923…0779backed Yes	31c	322.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-34%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No	78c	302.96$236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.42	186	41.4%77 W · 109 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0191…93f0backed Yes	31c	300$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe350…6876backed Yes	5c	300$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes	19c	219.73$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.45	281	33.1%93 W · 188 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…cfadbacked No	52c	204.45$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.55	39	25.6%10 W · 29 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	24c	200.83$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.2	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.18per pick	29cpaid	-75.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	25%5 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	+71.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x587b…2622backed No	61c	191.74$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.11	259	54.8%142 W · 117 L	+17.3wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a78…a52ebacked Yes	54c	183.31$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.99	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes	29c	162.43$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.73	673	54.7%368 W · 305 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eb0…8826backed Yes	8c	162.22$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed No	78c	161.99$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.64	104	52.9%55 W · 49 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b0…b71fbacked Yes	42c	134.98$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.3	62	22.6%14 W · 48 L	-7.2wins	-0.12per pick	34cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7c12…93a7backed Yes	26c	122.56$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-48%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes	21c	119.05$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-3.3wins	-0.12per pick	30cpaid	-54%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xee2c…55cfbacked Yes	15c	118.45$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.06	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Yes	22c	115.91$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	107	34.6%37 W · 70 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb939…ed05backed No	78c	109.96$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.19	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30dd…e2f4backed Yes	28c	100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.8wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x660e…76ccbacked Yes	21c	95.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	192	41.1%79 W · 113 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No	69c	92.65$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.52	168	41.1%69 W · 99 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9fa…c365backed Yes	54c	91.82$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f7d…5769backed Yes	43c	91.21$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.88	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cae…fdc1backed Yes	22c	90.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	44.8%26 W · 32 L	+4.9wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…3e3dbacked No	69c	90.61$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.24	131	31.3%41 W · 90 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eb3…ab21backed Yes	53c	80$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.4	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e8f…6b61backed No	54c	80$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.86	96	33.3%32 W · 64 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes	66c	75.76$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	178	51.1%91 W · 87 L	-8.1wins	-0.05per pick	56cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d24…a93fbacked No	67c	75$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.75	135	38.5%52 W · 83 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes	19c	68.1$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.76	1,045	29.3%306 W · 739 L	-10.8wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes	38c	65.54$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.03	1,001	53.9%540 W · 461 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0448…5a75backed Yes	31c	64.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	51%26 W · 25 L	+3.6wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes	31c	64.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	226	50.9%115 W · 111 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1028…406ebacked Yes	31c	64.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+141.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e0…017cbacked Yes	58c	61.14$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.17	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes	25c	60$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	52	25%13 W · 39 L	-6.5wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc758…8574backed Yes	28c	53.54$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	42	40.5%17 W · 25 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed No	79c	53.33$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.2	68	45.6%31 W · 37 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5948…15afbacked Yes	57c	52.63$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdb29…358ebacked Yes	57c	50.88$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9a5…9445backed Yes	30c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a96…e12fbacked Yes	29c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e6f…eb72backed No	78c	50$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	69	66.7%46 W · 23 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	68cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c82…05cfbacked No	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fe…c944backed Yes	30c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes	30c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	131	40.5%53 W · 78 L	+6.2wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc136…f3c6backed Yes	31c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	47cpaid	+43.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde49…4ae6backed Yes	29c	49.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b6…e5b3backed Yes	27c	45.13$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6103…3b6bbacked No	80c	43.75$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.75	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdebe…7e70backed Yes	30c	43.33$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd35…ecebbacked Yes	31c	38.71$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10d3…3d7abacked No	61c	33.27$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.91	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-2.9wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed No	76c	30.17$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.36	369	39.6%146 W · 223 L	-12.0wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95dc…6b74backed Yes	45c	26.52$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-4.0wins	-0.40per pick	60cpaid	-71.7%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9d81…5d42backed Yes	58c	25.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6de2…d0e5backed No	51c	19.64$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.53	45	35.6%16 W · 29 L	-6.1wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked No	54c	19.06$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.73	47	51.1%24 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26ae…97b8backed No	78c	19$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.18	112	59.8%67 W · 45 L	+7.3wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed No	74c	15.46$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	81	45.7%37 W · 44 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Montenegro vs. Croatia end in a draw?this page
Will Croatia win on 2025-11-17?Yes won
Will Montenegro win on 2025-11-17?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Montenegro vs. Croatia end in a draw?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event