MLB · resolved market
Nationals vs. Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e04edfcd66d8ceff93c2e9c2ed3cc784700b7cffbad99ddfb7a3b336f794b85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nationalsof Nationals, Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $228,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $234,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18d2…81e0backed Orioles | 64c | 156,020$99,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99,854.97 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Nationals | 36c | 45,995$16,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,436.54 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Nationals | 36c | 35,981$12,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,027.84 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…748bbacked Orioles | 65c | 34,730$22,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,574.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…0686backed Nationals | 35c | 34,510$12,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,431.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Nationals | 36c | 28,226$10,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,064.89 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9d…02c7backed Nationals | 36c | 24,517$8,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,690.67 | 359 | 52.4%188 W · 171 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Nationals | 36c | 8,456$3,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,411.87 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Nationals | 35c | 2,727$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.25 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Orioles | 21c | 2,624$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.66 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Orioles | 9c | 2,219$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.43 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Nationals | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nationals | 36c | 1,839$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.13 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Nationals | 38c | 1,775$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,107.97 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fb…84b5backed Orioles | 64c | 1,563$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1515…4320backed Nationals | 38c | 1,530$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +165.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Orioles | 66c | 1,400$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Orioles | 63c | 999.99$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.58 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…4a49backed Nationals | 37c | 775$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.25 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Nationals | 44c | 677.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.54 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc84…3e67backed Nationals | 40c | 625$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Nationals | 36c | 550$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Orioles | 62c | 527.35$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Nationals | 37c | 500.95$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.83 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeace…fe6abacked Nationals | 40c | 450$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 132 | 47%62 W · 70 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9997…1226backed Orioles | 63c | 440$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…b326backed Nationals | 37c | 440$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Nationals | 36c | 438.38$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Nationals | 38c | 394.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.74 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Orioles | 63c | 350$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Orioles | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Orioles | 56c | 299.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Orioles | 39c | 250$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.41 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c5…9a0ebacked Orioles | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 708 | 41.4%293 W · 415 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Nationals | 45c | 244.06$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.06 | 239 | 38.5%92 W · 147 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Orioles | 38c | 242.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Nationals | 66c | 237$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Orioles | 15c | 220.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3499…4f27backed Nationals | 35c | 219.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Orioles | 61c | 196.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -5.0wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Nationals | 37c | 183$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Nationals | 38c | 171$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.02 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…d0e3backed Nationals | 45c | 165$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.87 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Orioles | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Nationals | 35c | 159.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 114 | 56.1%64 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Orioles | 63c | 159.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Nationals | 37c | 159.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.13 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Orioles | 7c | 149$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Orioles | 47c | 117$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 177 | 32.8%58 W · 119 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Nationals | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 206 | 45.1%93 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…95c7backed Nationals | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…fcd9backed Orioles | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nationals | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Nationals | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…aa79backed Nationals | 36c | 96.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +55%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Orioles | 64c | 94.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…5f6fbacked Nationals | 44c | 90.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9026…bf0bbacked Orioles | 64c | 72.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…42bfbacked Nationals | 36c | 72.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +46%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Nationals | 36c | 61.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…4b7ebacked Nationals | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 387 | 43.2%167 W · 220 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ab…cdcbbacked Nationals | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Orioles | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Orioles | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…16bfbacked Orioles | 65c | 48.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdede…149ebacked Orioles | 65c | 48.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f26…9179backed Nationals | 60c | 47.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Orioles | 65c | 46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Orioles | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Nationals | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Nationals | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Nationals | 47c | 36.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…d651backed Orioles | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Nationals | 39c | 34.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Orioles | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x575e…5b86backed Orioles | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Orioles | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Orioles | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Orioles | 57c | 19.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc811…a5b9backed Orioles | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.