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CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof Team Falcons, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$266,004
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$295,708

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $266,004 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 248 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x26c5…8813backed Team Falcons72c14,937$10,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,749.98944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked MOUZ46c14,472$6,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,758.423,26250.3%1,640 W · 1,622 L+97.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Falcons62c13,499$8,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,430.7177957.4%447 W · 332 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked MOUZ41c13,373$5,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,841.1841640.4%168 W · 248 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team Falcons19c8,299$1,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,591.171,46139.3%574 W · 887 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed MOUZ57c8,011$4,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,444.314,26149.2%2,098 W · 2,163 L+62.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee21…6f5fbacked MOUZ30c6,524$1,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,565.641233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Team Falcons62c5,812$3,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,612.4165751.9%341 W · 316 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Team Falcons25c5,325$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,307.7510044%44 W · 56 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked MOUZ51c5,000$2,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,469.4319757.4%113 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked Team Falcons55c5,000$2,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,747.49248.9%45 W · 47 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed Team Falcons63c5,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,149.9972453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked MOUZ52c4,500$2,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160.9325655.5%142 W · 114 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…ac87backed Team Falcons26c3,415$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90017349.7%86 W · 87 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked MOUZ36c3,406$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,172.532542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Team Falcons62c3,249$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00033359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Team Falcons9c3,170$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.253342.6%227 W · 306 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Team Falcons19c3,147$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.3215947.8%76 W · 83 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43f2…6fc2backed MOUZ37c3,006$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,893.862352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+38.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked Team Falcons51c2,829$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.8326454.9%145 W · 119 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x078f…796cbacked Team Falcons57c2,733$1,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,563.715536.4%20 W · 35 L-7.8wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-34.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0e7c…4ca0backed Team Falcons62c2,681$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,661.66944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54c2…23adbacked MOUZ38c2,469$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,530.69147.3%43 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Falcons32c2,412$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.245,40031.5%1,699 W · 3,701 L-393.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd528…a2d2backed Team Falcons42c2,400$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00018056.7%102 W · 78 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x642c…21a7backed Team Falcons60c2,233$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.8820251%103 W · 99 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…cc01backed Team Falcons55c2,227$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230.46136.1%22 W · 39 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked MOUZ38c2,189$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,357.1875945.3%344 W · 415 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Team Falcons53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06045455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed Team Falcons20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40048437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed MOUZ64c1,852$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.4888848.3%429 W · 459 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked MOUZ43c1,739$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.415,13755%2,826 W · 2,311 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Team Falcons3c1,664$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.561102.7%3 W · 107 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Falcons62c1,596$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.2361153.4%326 W · 285 L-31.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Team Falcons63c1,585$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050050.8%254 W · 246 L-21.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ67c1,548$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.516,52242.9%2,798 W · 3,724 L-80.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Falcons57c1,520$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.852,70747.9%1,296 W · 1,411 L-30.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Team Falcons35c1,506$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.612,81637.6%1,060 W · 1,756 L-138.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ37c1,500$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.992,12041.9%889 W · 1,231 L-47.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b5…c0aebacked MOUZ36c1,482$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.424353.5%23 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Team Falcons3c1,437$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7471123.9%170 W · 541 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Falcons22c1,400$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.51,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed MOUZ37c1,281$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.0222245.9%102 W · 120 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Falcons20c1,257$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.664,81743.4%2,091 W · 2,726 L-90.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed MOUZ74c1,213$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.9515155%83 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed MOUZ36c1,166$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.3533932.2%109 W · 230 L-1.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed MOUZ39c1,154$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.8313732.1%44 W · 93 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-21%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed MOUZ38c1,033$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.4445639.3%179 W · 277 L-29.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked MOUZ39c1,026$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.6313234.8%46 W · 86 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb22a…a80dbacked Team Falcons49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+22.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed MOUZ39c1,000$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61028738%109 W · 178 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked MOUZ38c987$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.9440140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Falcons53c968.66$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.621,27347.1%600 W · 673 L+20.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x932c…8658backed Team Falcons39c956.01$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.127243.1%31 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x50f9…c327backed Team Falcons46c935.04$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.2718160.2%109 W · 72 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc43c…e9e8backed MOUZ41c915.74$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.74944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ac…47e6backed MOUZ68c874.55$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.6169671.7%499 W · 197 L+120.3wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+23.8%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x8837…17aabacked Team Falcons49c856.7$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.867745.5%35 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Team Falcons59c850.31$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50029934.4%103 W · 196 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons10c849.81$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.852,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeff…42fbbacked Team Falcons6c833.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505754.4%31 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadd4…15c2backed MOUZ50c799.99$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4003036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x40cf…2748backed Team Falcons45c797.51$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.8716155.9%90 W · 71 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed MOUZ43c792.85$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.591,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed Team Falcons55c791.89$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.1420958.9%123 W · 86 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c07…08c5backed Team Falcons55c791.69$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4325438.9%21 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98dc…9963backed Team Falcons64c781.86$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Team Falcons47c775.17$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36728443.7%124 W · 160 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3724…c59abacked MOUZ38c770$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.49732%31 W · 66 L-8.8wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-24.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Falcons60c765.3$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.73,99436.5%1,456 W · 2,538 L-207.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76f9…3c97backed MOUZ56c749.97$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.99966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Team Falcons60c695.68$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.3122750.2%114 W · 113 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea5…6163backed Team Falcons59c660$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.0811265.2%73 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa113…284ebacked MOUZ50c642.64$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.3220935.4%74 W · 135 L-21.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-27.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked MOUZ39c609.47$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.2755843.5%243 W · 315 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked MOUZ33c600$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4042,60652.6%1,371 W · 1,235 L+96.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Team Falcons61c586.13$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36022843.9%100 W · 128 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Team Falcons19c580$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.841716.5%69 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons38c576.38$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.554,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Falcons32c548.78$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.665,11337.1%1,899 W · 3,214 L-268.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Team Falcons32c525$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.892,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x41f7…9bf9backed MOUZ38c514.74$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.147748.1%37 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Falcons3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,47244.5%1,101 W · 1,371 L-68.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7e8…4f4bbacked Team Falcons20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003452.9%18 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6c3…55a3backed Team Falcons21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1052218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-63%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked Team Falcons4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2022421.9%49 W · 175 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-46%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed MOUZ53c499.97$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.992751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7c…3a60backed Team Falcons11c492.53$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146c…b807backed Team Falcons11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040348.6%196 W · 207 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked MOUZ59c450.02$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.5115153.6%81 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed MOUZ62c449.99$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.716654.5%36 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed MOUZ73c425.93$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11533553.4%179 W · 156 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x690d…70adbacked MOUZ39c417.95$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-14.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x37c4…3e8fbacked MOUZ35c413.99$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.275052%26 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x847e…3c43backed MOUZ60c407.74$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.7429052.4%152 W · 138 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Team Falcons12c400$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481,28922%283 W · 1,006 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0cc…c8ddbacked Team Falcons4c400$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169515.8%15 W · 80 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf91c…baa7backed Team Falcons19c388$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7217345.7%79 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x312c…0f42backed Team Falcons75c373.33$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28021053.8%113 W · 97 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef15…74dabacked Team Falcons60c372.76$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.441643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.