World Politics · resolved market
Australia election results in a hung parliament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x423bb7b222134149a4f963096e9fb0090f51964ec1e7b443dc1c3f1c14b792e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc03f…416abacked No | 59c | 28,481$16,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,677.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe66b…2eeebacked Yes | 41c | 28,481$11,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,677.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 13,300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 1c | 7,576$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked No | 65c | 4,100$2,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,454 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Yes | 34c | 2,618$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 37c | 2,275$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.85 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 36c | 1,503$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.94 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67d…9cafbacked No | 67c | 1,500$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 1,383$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,370$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +264.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b1c5backed No | 54c | 1,334$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked Yes | 39c | 1,164$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.35 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 35c | 966.5$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.26 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 2c | 900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 49c | 659.54$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.02 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 37c | 550$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7225…36a2backed No | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +34%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes | 35c | 470.81$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.61 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 62c | 443.84$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed No | 57c | 420$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071a…df8ebacked Yes | 30c | 400.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.59 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 33c | 397.09$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.24 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 56c | 303.73$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.81 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…d100backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 46c | 296.75$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.6 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 261$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 39c | 229.34$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.61 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…6094backed No | 46c | 218.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 35c | 214.71$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 41c | 204.39$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.88 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 63c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 33c | 197.91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 34c | 185.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 53c | 174.42$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…34c8backed No | 67c | 149.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked No | 68c | 147.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 32cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 62c | 142$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 55c | 131.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 37c | 114.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed No | 63c | 101$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…abd1backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3f…5d43backed Yes | 41c | 96.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 33c | 96.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 53c | 80.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 36c | 78.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 74.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 33c | 73.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…bf18backed Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x331f…28e3backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…7b42backed No | 38c | 55.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…5838backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa30d…323dbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d8…fa21backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa260…22fabacked Yes | 34c | 47.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa426…f378backed Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 64c | 39.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8550…90f7backed No | 66c | 37.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…acc2backed No | 66c | 35.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c92…c3a1backed Yes | 35c | 31.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…e76cbacked No | 70c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd357…d80fbacked No | 74c | 27.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…658bbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…bf39backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +175.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c45…9307backed No | 69c | 24.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264b…28fabacked No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 57c | 20.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…b00ebacked No | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.