Commodities · resolved market
Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42e5daca5bd254ad67e438d1627f2227a04c98cf1d0ac3a1a9cc1cccf6ecb819
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 48c | 895.5$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.39 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa108…abd3backed No | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 59c | 274.13$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.29 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 61c | 199.89$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.93 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 175.75$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 53c | 170$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a7…2133backed No | 66c | 166.13$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ca…d7a6backed Yes | 44c | 156.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed Yes | 27c | 137.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked Yes | 43c | 110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde5a…2251backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 98.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 47c | 98.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.38per pick | 49cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked No | 53c | 82.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 55c | 67.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 66.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba99…8dd1backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 53c | 56.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 51c | 53.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…dda2backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 35c | 43.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 53c | 42.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 52c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40be…e067backed Yes | 46c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 67c | 40.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbda…fdbbbacked Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5591…ebe0backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c76backed Yes | 58c | 38.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94cc…1df5backed No | 54c | 31.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb24…496bbacked No | 45c | 30.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed No | 45c | 30.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd51…6a52backed No | 68c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…acb2backed No | 50c | 29.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…491dbacked No | 52c | 29.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 49c | 28.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 51c | 27.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.41per pick | 48cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…83e1backed Yes | 67c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…1d98backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…a8dabacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…cdddbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…eec3backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9e…11b3backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 58c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?this page
- Will 180-199 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?No won
- Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?Yes won
- Will 220 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.