F1 · resolved market
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4427dedc230f6916f470a7a1e1c90ec0d3c512aef11d90cf54aa1fee6c52a612
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1aee…c139backed No | 18c | 2,083$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.81 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…45eebacked Yes | 60c | 1,655$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 37c | 1,502$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.97 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Yes | 60c | 1,342$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.98 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 40c | 1,278$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.03 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 1,170$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked Yes | 63c | 963.56$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 76c | 947.1$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.07 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fd…3313backed No | 37c | 783.52$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…a9d8backed Yes | 67c | 689$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf006…bb6cbacked No | 34c | 599.19$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.89 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 60c | 589$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.21 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked Yes | 64c | 575.61$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4d…3f0bbacked No | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked No | 40c | 411.8$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.72 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Yes | 59c | 399.99$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 14c | 377.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed No | 10c | 362.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes | 60c | 333.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.68 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 68c | 293$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.76 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 30c | 268.56$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 60c | 266.64$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.64 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe26e…036bbacked No | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 60c | 174.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbef4…dbcdbacked Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 39c | 155.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e3…706fbacked Yes | 66c | 151.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 60c | 129.52$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 60c | 124.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…9325backed Yes | 78c | 117.09$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ae…9574backed Yes | 60c | 113.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9edd…6fe3backed No | 47c | 88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2389…5158backed Yes | 60c | 84.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…77bbbacked Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…c775backed Yes | 62c | 80.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 73c | 80.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 41c | 79.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf404…0422backed No | 47c | 64.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cd…e77cbacked No | 37c | 62.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…ec52backed Yes | 53c | 55.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…7ad6backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 65%65 W · 35 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd840…1ec6backed Yes | 66c | 49.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 23c | 48.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c05…2f0bbacked Yes | 60c | 44.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cce…9310backed No | 46c | 43.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf2…e87dbacked Yes | 62c | 41.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 55c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 64c | 37.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e18…7bb9backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x123e…eed4backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…e8dabacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…c3c2backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2723…d384backed Yes | 63c | 31.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…d25fbacked Yes | 67c | 29.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x195d…2decbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…653abacked Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 50c | 22.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0170…394fbacked Yes | 62c | 20.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…40f7backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x706a…d6f2backed Yes | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…f32fbacked Yes | 60c | 18.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe3…1f2abacked Yes | 61c | 17.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x258a…9dbabacked Yes | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e6…ee43backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.