NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x447e94f1ccb6f5f1eb5891265c9526a6af1bc666d6a32cec56923f2036f9edcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,083
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,083 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 1,752$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.49 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Under | 3c | 1,680$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Over | 52c | 1,510$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.62 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 42c | 1,138$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.83 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 28c | 886.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.54 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 50c | 875.53$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.53 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…1742backed Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Under | 4c | 599.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 85 | 11.8%10 W · 75 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 287.4$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.25 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 41c | 250.68$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.78 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 22c | 226.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.4 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…3ee8backed Under | 51c | 215.69$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 249 | 55.8%139 W · 110 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Over | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 46c | 185.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…e8a6backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…7f4cbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…9141backed Over | 61c | 168.38$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 48c | 53.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x130c…782cbacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 144 | 20.1%29 W · 115 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd00…7a45backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 380 | 50.8%193 W · 187 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Over | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…4629backed Over | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce42…5cddbacked Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa69…ef12backed Over | 59c | 20.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…7b6bbacked Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. WarriorsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.