NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5946e1ef82aa2c7e08fce1f4d43373cc353f4a070315042a5e5895861a8a3cfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Warriors | 40c | 7,646$3,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,083.02 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 51c | 3,753$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.07 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 65c | 3,587$2,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.72 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Warriors | 53c | 2,390$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.19 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Warriors | 44c | 2,309$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.19 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Thunder | 56c | 2,200$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Warriors | 35c | 1,253$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.32 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Warriors | 35c | 1,250$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.5 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Thunder | 57c | 900$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.05 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Warriors | 40c | 728.56$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.42 | 240 | 48.3%116 W · 124 L | -13.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Thunder | 72c | 691$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Warriors | 40c | 532.56$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.17 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Warriors | 34c | 503.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.47 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.24 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Thunder | 60c | 328.33$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.33 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x447f…d110backed Warriors | 31c | 300$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | +8.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…6df7backed Warriors | 45c | 267.66$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.23 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6d…8a40backed Thunder | 57c | 221.61$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Thunder | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Thunder | 56c | 198.21$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.21 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Thunder | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Thunder | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 57c | 170$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.01 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…ab7cbacked Thunder | 55c | 169.78$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Thunder | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Thunder | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Thunder | 59c | 116.67$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…a127backed Warriors | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa57…1e6bbacked Thunder | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Warriors | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Thunder | 56c | 99.95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Thunder | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…5555backed Thunder | 56c | 88.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Warriors | 38c | 77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Thunder | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Warriors | 33c | 60.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Warriors | 35c | 59.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 448 | 44.2%198 W · 250 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Thunder | 46c | 58.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…5f6cbacked Thunder | 55c | 56.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Thunder | 63c | 52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a5…fb44backed Thunder | 71c | 49.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 125 | 61.6%77 W · 48 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Warriors | 35c | 42.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Warriors | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 234 | 38.9%91 W · 143 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Thunder | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Warriors | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Thunder | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23c…555dbacked Thunder | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Thunder | 56c | 35.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Warriors | 44c | 32.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…121cbacked Thunder | 55c | 31.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Warriors | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Thunder | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x715c…78c0backed Thunder | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…c254backed Warriors | 44c | 24.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 191 | 47.1%90 W · 101 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Thunder | 67c | 22.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x364c…2e92backed Thunder | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc475…cf40backed Thunder | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef69…cdbdbacked Thunder | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. WarriorsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.