NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc478be085647ccca0fd06efcf54d86d15bcd16bef19a0887f04ed31ce6c7e782
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Under | 56c | 9,733$5,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,298.55 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Under | 57c | 6,600$3,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,832 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Over | 46c | 5,636$2,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,595 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98b5…e61fbacked Over | 52c | 3,697$1,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920.6 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…15fabacked Over | 53c | 3,653$1,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,936.28 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Over | 46c | 3,250$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 3,014$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440.02 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 43c | 2,991$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.01 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 54c | 2,699$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.36 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…d469backed Under | 54c | 2,400$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 2,376$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.32 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 1,909$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.59 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Over | 40c | 1,712$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.82 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Under | 50c | 1,644$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.73 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 43c | 1,500$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 45c | 1,445$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.95 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 52c | 1,443$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 51c | 1,378$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.34 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Over | 41c | 1,250$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.5 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Over | 46c | 1,080$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 258 | 47.3%122 W · 136 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 49c | 640.29$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.12 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 496$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.28 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 45c | 410.64$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.79 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Over | 6c | 374$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Over | 40c | 301.31$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.52 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Under | 48c | 280$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 46c | 250$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.75 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 5c | 225.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa75d…1d45backed Over | 53c | 198.11$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 223 | 47.1%105 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd448…f700backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Over | 21c | 189.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…2c42backed Over | 48c | 185.21$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 47c | 183.28$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.14 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 181.64$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.19 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Over | 51c | 175.76$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.36 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Over | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 258 | 46.9%121 W · 137 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3516…ea50backed Over | 51c | 100.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 45c | 85.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…119dbacked Under | 72c | 77.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 52c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 56c | 60.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x130c…782cbacked Over | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 144 | 20.1%29 W · 115 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 39c | 58.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…0710backed Over | 53c | 56.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 54c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Over | 38c | 40.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 61c | 40.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f8…256ebacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…1ea7backed Over | 41c | 36.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.27per pick | 58cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 234 | 38.9%91 W · 143 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…0650backed Over | 48c | 30.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ee…31cabacked Over | 45c | 29.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Under | 50c | 25.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186b…1148backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…5bdfbacked Under | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. WarriorsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.