NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc25993293d1f63c462ed18d4b8148ec4d16b3d7c2ba9cadb5e986728c84b9abd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $349,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $352,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $349,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Thunder | 53c | 266,361$140,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126,239.5 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Warriors | 47c | 123,838$58,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58,203.86 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d1…dbcbbacked Warriors | 49c | 50,712$25,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,000 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 48c | 31,152$14,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,890.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Warriors | 48c | 23,514$11,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,212.39 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Warriors | 47c | 20,000$9,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,450 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Warriors | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Warriors | 48c | 6,000$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,880 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Warriors | 49c | 5,851$2,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,867 | 269 | 49.1%132 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Warriors | 49c | 3,673$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Warriors | 48c | 2,700$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.73 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 47c | 1,479$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.97 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Warriors | 49c | 1,228$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.72 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Thunder | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 266 | 37.2%99 W · 167 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Warriors | 50c | 1,140$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Thunder | 51c | 846$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.54 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 48c | 836.66$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.43 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Thunder | 51c | 800$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Thunder | 50c | 688.31$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.16 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Warriors | 48c | 626$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.48 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Thunder | 53c | 616.87$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.14 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Warriors | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Thunder | 51c | 541.22$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…8cd4backed Thunder | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…1ebebacked Thunder | 50c | 494$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Thunder | 50c | 439.24$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.81 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Thunder | 51c | 399.99$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Thunder | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Thunder | 54c | 371.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.3 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Warriors | 48c | 350$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Warriors | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Thunder | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Thunder | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 49c | 188.84$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.66 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…9141backed Thunder | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x780c…7921backed Thunder | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0110…3b75backed Thunder | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Thunder | 52c | 157.17$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Warriors | 49c | 129.16$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Warriors | 49c | 114.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 631 | 42%265 W · 366 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Warriors | 49c | 106.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Warriors | 49c | 103.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Warriors | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Thunder | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Thunder | 14c | 95.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Warriors | 47c | 91.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Warriors | 48c | 85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Warriors | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 135 | 36.3%49 W · 86 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Thunder | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Thunder | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9da…06eebacked Warriors | 48c | 52.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b35…a23cbacked Thunder | 54c | 51.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bef…b7c2backed Thunder | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Warriors | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Thunder | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…8c81backed Warriors | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x394a…536ebacked Thunder | 52c | 41.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Warriors | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…418ebacked Warriors | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Warriors | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdffc…17f1backed Warriors | 51c | 38.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…c690backed Warriors | 51c | 32.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Warriors | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Warriors | 47c | 28.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…ecfabacked Warriors | 49c | 26.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…7f18backed Warriors | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Warriors | 49c | 22.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Thunder | 52c | 21.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Warriors | 48c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 448 | 44.2%198 W · 250 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. WarriorsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.