NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ee3d73f4cb73733f9610dd31721585065c54c74c84f596a0d5895e734f7c7bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Warriors | 43c | 33,992$14,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,597.42 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Thunder | 53c | 12,287$6,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,827.62 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 52c | 8,274$4,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,986.37 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Thunder | 70c | 7,163$5,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,162.29 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Thunder | 52c | 4,813$2,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,310 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Thunder | 70c | 3,573$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.9 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Warriors | 49c | 3,222$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Thunder | 52c | 2,734$1,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.46 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Warriors | 48c | 2,719$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.94 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 54c | 2,127$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.92 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…0c1bbacked Warriors | 44c | 1,551$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.44 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -6.6wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Warriors | 33c | 1,519$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.03 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Thunder | 52c | 1,495$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.72 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Thunder | 63c | 1,310$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.7 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Warriors | 37c | 1,250$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.5 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Warriors | 37c | 1,250$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.5 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Thunder | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Thunder | 58c | 1,109$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.83 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Thunder | 52c | 1,102$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.84 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…6df7backed Warriors | 48c | 1,052$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.77 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Thunder | 68c | 799.41$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.81 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…fe1abacked Thunder | 57c | 617.94$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.51 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Thunder | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 55c | 397.76$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.21 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Thunder | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Thunder | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Warriors | 45c | 232.02$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Thunder | 69c | 218.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.29 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Thunder | 53c | 187.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Warriors | 49c | 187.76$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 135 | 36.3%49 W · 86 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…2fe0backed Thunder | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Thunder | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Warriors | 37c | 125.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Thunder | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Warriors | 44c | 94.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Thunder | 60c | 93.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 32c | 89.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Warriors | 47c | 88.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked Thunder | 60c | 82.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -12.3wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Thunder | 53c | 77.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Thunder | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Warriors | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…21b7backed Warriors | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7de7…4720backed Thunder | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…a233backed Thunder | 52c | 56.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Warriors | 38c | 54.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 448 | 44.2%198 W · 250 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Warriors | 34c | 53.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbb…1a0dbacked Thunder | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Warriors | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 183 | 47.5%87 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…d469backed Thunder | 52c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e84…b7f6backed Warriors | 48c | 44.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…3f3bbacked Warriors | 48c | 42.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Warriors | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 225 | 56.9%128 W · 97 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Warriors | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 234 | 38.9%91 W · 143 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b30…99cdbacked Warriors | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -6.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Warriors | 38c | 29.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…f88fbacked Thunder | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Warriors | 50c | 28.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Thunder | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…a17ebacked Warriors | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Warriors | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Thunder | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1147…da78backed Thunder | 62c | 19.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. WarriorsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.