NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01784855a0b090b590953f5b4c6d0d3f71b34c197fcdba25d463826a726fb1ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $418,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $469,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $418,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Thunder | 49c | 212,989$104,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108,771.1 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Warriors | 51c | 198,746$101,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101,360.66 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Thunder | 49c | 102,508$49,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,531.63 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 52c | 45,111$23,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,237.5 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Warriors | 52c | 25,709$13,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,368.76 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Warriors | 51c | 24,000$12,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,240 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Warriors | 52c | 15,082$7,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,786.27 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Warriors | 52c | 4,731$2,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,458.76 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Warriors | 52c | 4,000$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,060 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Warriors | 49c | 3,174$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541.24 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Thunder | 48c | 2,259$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.7 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Warriors | 51c | 1,900$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.58 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d1…8a29backed Warriors | 52c | 1,206$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.09 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Thunder | 80c | 999$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 52c | 848$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.96 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…f36dbacked Thunder | 46c | 619.97$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.79 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +6.3wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x957a…c34dbacked Warriors | 23c | 435.19$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Thunder | 49c | 367.35$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.35 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Warriors | 44c | 276.04$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.29 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Warriors | 36c | 275.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Warriors | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…63d6backed Warriors | 54c | 225.93$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Warriors | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Warriors | 30c | 199$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Warriors | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec5…9fe0backed Warriors | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 168 | 53%89 W · 79 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Warriors | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 24c | 155.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Warriors | 31c | 130.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Thunder | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Thunder | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Warriors | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Warriors | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df0…7eb8backed Warriors | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1eb…ec16backed Thunder | 64c | 85.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Warriors | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…224dbacked Warriors | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Warriors | 52c | 69.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Warriors | 52c | 69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Thunder | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…0adcbacked Warriors | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Warriors | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e88ebacked Warriors | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…505cbacked Warriors | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Warriors | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b0…07bfbacked Warriors | 52c | 34.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd925…3ab5backed Thunder | 49c | 30.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Thunder | 49c | 23.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 258 | 47.3%122 W · 136 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 52c | 23.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Warriors | 52c | 22.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…04a9backed Thunder | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. WarriorsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.