NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17f364b2618ba0871e20443d0973c8e96c8c4946d16e97f782a127db959b9e0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1341…0853backed Thunder | 61c | 10,222$6,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,031.85 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Warriors | 36c | 7,417$2,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,697.61 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Warriors | 53c | 4,400$2,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,332 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Warriors | 44c | 4,000$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Thunder | 56c | 3,822$2,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.92 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Warriors | 40c | 3,750$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.5 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Warriors | 42c | 3,646$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532.25 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Warriors | 50c | 2,711$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.66 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 50c | 2,486$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.09 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed Thunder | 50c | 1,762$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Thunder | 56c | 1,330$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.76 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 38c | 1,194$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.15 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Thunder | 49c | 1,026$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.04 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Warriors | 53c | 981.13$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 49c | 579.6$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.72 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…6cb6backed Thunder | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Thunder | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…fe1abacked Thunder | 63c | 438.41$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.21 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Warriors | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Warriors | 42c | 392.01$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.23 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Warriors | 45c | 318.38$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.15 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Thunder | 52c | 214$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.74 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Warriors | 38c | 200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Warriors | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Warriors | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1147…da78backed Thunder | 60c | 165$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Thunder | 59c | 150.33$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Warriors | 37c | 130$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Warriors | 47c | 125$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Warriors | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Thunder | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…3f7abacked Thunder | 49c | 90.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Warriors | 47c | 82.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Thunder | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Warriors | 45c | 79.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 135 | 36.3%49 W · 86 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Warriors | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Thunder | 56c | 77.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f60…f897backed Thunder | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…0650backed Warriors | 45c | 64.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 42c | 62.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Warriors | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Thunder | 62c | 51.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Warriors | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Warriors | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Thunder | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Thunder | 48c | 37.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Warriors | 38c | 36.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Warriors | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 234 | 38.9%91 W · 143 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Thunder | 65c | 30.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Warriors | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…55b8backed Warriors | 54c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Warriors | 51c | 26.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f19…e03ebacked Warriors | 49c | 21.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Thunder | 67c | 19.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. WarriorsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.