NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99211478791f220e59c8fe155bddffd34ed511a55d1a03bb053b174232ccef4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 19,111$8,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,073.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Under | 59c | 14,237$8,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,880.91 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 6,491$3,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,116.69 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…15fabacked Under | 59c | 4,920$2,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,017.25 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 51c | 3,622$1,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.58 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 52c | 3,037$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457.54 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…9d48backed Under | 52c | 1,723$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.08 | 193 | 59.6%115 W · 78 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb991…2462backed Over | 48c | 1,020$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 54c | 870.08$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.24 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…435cbacked Under | 52c | 840$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 42c | 801.41$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.7 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 667.4$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.35 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 56c | 333.09$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.99 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 284$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.54 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Over | 50c | 239.16$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.58 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Under | 51c | 205$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6921…2345backed Over | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -12.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 51c | 196$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.04 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 54c | 190$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.74 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0f…30e6backed Under | 52c | 180$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 44c | 155.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 41c | 155.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…61c4backed Over | 42c | 154.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x957a…c34dbacked Under | 51c | 105.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 48c | 99.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Over | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Over | 47c | 59.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 304 | 52.6%160 W · 144 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 49c | 49.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 44c | 28.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 51c | 27.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…c3c9backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-13.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. WarriorsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.