TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,740
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,646

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,740 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under58c1,706$981 inWon+$724.812,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over42c1,060$443 inLost-$443.44,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3647…6250backed Over47c426.45$200 inLost-$200.4312245.9%56 W · 66 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Under53c406.99$216 inWon+$191.2962347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3973…2b2abacked Under62c282.84$174 inWon+$108.842759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over44c249.68$110 inLost-$109.861,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over41c218.82$90 inLost-$89.893849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over39c142.03$56 inLost-$55.851,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under61c126$77 inWon+$49.368,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over38c107.37$41 inLost-$40.86,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over42c105$44 inLost-$43.952,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01f3…f409backed Over48c100$48 inLost-$48616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-75.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x83fc…13ccbacked Over46c88.43$40 inLost-$40.3812654%68 W · 58 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Over41c60.98$25 inLost-$2593036.5%339 W · 591 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under59c60.98$36 inWon+$2585147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Over38c39.46$15 inLost-$1523438.9%91 W · 143 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ee…5c69backed Under57c35.33$20 inWon+$15.1914137.6%53 W · 88 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c34.66$16 inLost-$16.169,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Over42c29.54$13 inLost-$12.522552%13 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3af…f79cbacked Under60c25$15 inWon+$101100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3708…96a0backed Over46c25$12 inLost-$11.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde2d…abbabacked Under61c18.91$12 inWon+$7.291471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+29.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.