TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,182
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,904

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,182 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under60c2,124$1,273 inWon+$8512,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over45c1,601$720 inLost-$720.399,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under65c851.07$552 inWon+$299.212,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over35c704.34$247 inLost-$246.523,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over39c699.62$274 inLost-$273.694,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Over21c550$116 inLost-$115.550347.9%241 W · 262 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496e…8abdbacked Over5c443.34$23 inLost-$23.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over4c421$15 inLost-$14.843,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Over18c273.59$48 inLost-$48.131144.4%138 W · 173 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Over12c209.66$25 inLost-$25.1639018.2%71 W · 319 L+27.6wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+62.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Over13c200$26 inLost-$261587%11 W · 147 L+0.7wins0.00per pick7cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed Over13c200$26 inLost-$269515.8%15 W · 80 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+45.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over36c200$72 inLost-$721,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eb6…2abbbacked Over13c200$26 inLost-$268512.9%11 W · 74 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick7cpaid+61.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x611a…e63ebacked Over13c200$26 inLost-$26437%3 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Under64c154$99 inWon+$55.442,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x117e…659cbacked Under65c153.85$100 inWon+$53.85520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7289…8d16backed Under64c151.97$98 inWon+$53.9713354.1%72 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84b8…d83abacked Over39c128.21$50 inLost-$501225%3 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-50.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over35c100$35 inLost-$352,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Over21c100$21 inLost-$2163427.3%173 W · 461 L-19.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over39c95.39$37 inLost-$36.952,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over16c81.38$13 inLost-$12.761,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under69c77.08$53 inWon+$23.668,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed Over36c70$25 inLost-$25.221056.2%118 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Over36c50$18 inLost-$17.751,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under61c40$24 inWon+$15.63,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x971c…f72cbacked Under57c35.3$20 inWon+$15.315253.3%81 W · 71 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Over35c33.95$12 inLost-$11.8850648%243 W · 263 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Under65c26.38$17 inWon+$9.2237949.3%187 W · 192 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf232…4fc6backed Under78c20$16 inWon+$4.412766.9%85 W · 42 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2107…f38cbacked Under57c20$11 inWon+$8.61258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+36%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde2d…abbabacked Under64c20$13 inWon+$7.31471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+29.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.