TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,049
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,576

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,049 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Warriors38c3,604$1,369 inLost-$1,369.3987144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16da…ef29backed Thunder62c2,000$1,240 inWon+$76012960.5%78 W · 51 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder62c1,627$1,008 inWon+$618.526,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Warriors38c1,506$567 inLost-$566.929,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Thunder63c1,056$665 inWon+$390.765959.3%35 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Thunder61c500$305 inWon+$19572250.6%365 W · 357 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder75c340.45$256 inWon+$84.338,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf4…6817backed Warriors26c300$77 inLost-$778426.2%22 W · 62 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Thunder62c94.29$58 inWon+$35.831,05353.5%563 W · 490 L-15.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Thunder26c74.29$19 inWon+$54.9727937.3%104 W · 175 L+57.6wins+0.21per pick17cpaid+187%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xd395…3731backed Warriors36c30$11 inLost-$10.89135.2%32 W · 59 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0919…fcbcbacked Warriors40c27.56$11 inLost-$11.0216343.6%71 W · 92 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked Warriors39c26.32$10 inLost-$10.2644844.2%198 W · 250 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98d0…01a4backed Thunder62c19.35$12 inWon+$7.3514654.8%80 W · 66 L+0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.