TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Trail Blazers (-13.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pacersof Trail Blazers, Pacers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$177,221

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,221 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93ab…9723backed Trail Blazers47c40,442$19,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,007.8360351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Trail Blazers47c40,075$18,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,835.251,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Pacers54c36,807$20,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,751.151,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Trail Blazers47c36,288$16,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,879.254,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Pacers53c34,666$18,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,293.171,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Pacers53c29,940$15,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,071.9638253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pacers52c10,332$5,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,929.829,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pacers49c9,913$4,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,029.94,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Pacers53c5,995$3,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,821.9645850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Trail Blazers44c5,625$2,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,474.8828643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Pacers53c3,429$1,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,611.632,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Pacers53c2,766$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.574,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Trail Blazers47c2,381$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.981,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pacers45c2,359$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,302.668,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Trail Blazers54c1,725$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.891,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Trail Blazers46c1,541$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.153,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Trail Blazers54c1,330$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.082,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Trail Blazers60c1,186$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.172,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x360b…982fbacked Pacers53c1,132$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.084658.7%27 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Trail Blazers47c1,065$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.5527455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Trail Blazers46c988$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.4854443%234 W · 310 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Trail Blazers44c901$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.445446.3%25 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Pacers51c867.16$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.663,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Trail Blazers48c808.81$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.3841947.7%200 W · 219 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Pacers54c534.59$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.913,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pacers51c502.94$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.995,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Trail Blazers45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20076250.4%384 W · 378 L+3.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7f51…7b9ebacked Trail Blazers48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010835.2%38 W · 70 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Trail Blazers48c391.22$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.7930453.3%162 W · 142 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6eaa…9baebacked Pacers53c379.68$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.4513554.1%73 W · 62 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Trail Blazers48c367.62$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.9348751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Pacers49c359.71$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.292,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc1e…8107backed Trail Blazers47c353.21$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.011315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.32per pick47cpaid-67.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Trail Blazers48c330.23$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.9557650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Pacers53c320.27$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.32,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Trail Blazers46c306$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.7645646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcd8…9908backed Trail Blazers47c277.86$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.5922552.4%118 W · 107 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5127…de1ebacked Pacers36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.7817944.1%79 W · 100 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Trail Blazers51c276.92$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.411,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Pacers55c268$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.677549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b43…fae9backed Pacers44c260.97$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.9731151.1%159 W · 152 L+0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Trail Blazers48c251$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4826756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Trail Blazers47c228.24$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2780653.6%432 W · 374 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Trail Blazers48c228.15$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.8889853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Trail Blazers46c212.77$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.871,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdae4…f1fcbacked Trail Blazers48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10019054.7%104 W · 86 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x300d…978fbacked Trail Blazers48c200.79$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1910752.3%56 W · 51 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a2d…4f43backed Trail Blazers47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9422850.9%116 W · 112 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d48…48e0backed Pacers48c192.83$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.7416658.4%97 W · 69 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Pacers52c185.29$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3929645.6%135 W · 161 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9094…dcabbacked Trail Blazers48c184$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3223655.5%131 W · 105 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Trail Blazers48c164.48$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7689048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce0…18d6backed Trail Blazers48c163.1$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.292450%12 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Trail Blazers46c153$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3856547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x891d…b19fbacked Trail Blazers48c150$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728251.2%42 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc308…c3b9backed Trail Blazers48c145.83$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1831354.6%171 W · 142 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Pacers40c145$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8765542.9%281 W · 374 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9505…fe9cbacked Trail Blazers48c144.24$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.641136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Trail Blazers34c140$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.837850.3%190 W · 188 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers53c130.85$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.56,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Trail Blazers53c124.92$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.291,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Trail Blazers45c123$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3523946.4%111 W · 128 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Pacers56c121.43$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4368542.6%292 W · 393 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Pacers39c120.51$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5191846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Trail Blazers64c109.97$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3817233.7%58 W · 114 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x63ce…dd2ebacked Pacers53c91.5$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+21.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28c1…ba5fbacked Pacers53c90.78$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.671060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94c4…2a41backed Trail Blazers48c88.53$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7122953.3%122 W · 107 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dec…058cbacked Pacers53c87.97$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.351346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed Trail Blazers48c84.72$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6725153.8%135 W · 116 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb431…b654backed Pacers53c82.96$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.991947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56a7…9f37backed Pacers52c80.45$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6220847.1%98 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a25…bb6bbacked Trail Blazers46c76.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1934047.1%160 W · 180 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Trail Blazers46c76.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1957250%286 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Trail Blazers54c74.31$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0987744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f6d…9e20backed Trail Blazers47c73.21$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.413751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Trail Blazers55c64.31$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4860250.5%304 W · 298 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Trail Blazers58c63.31$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3718242.9%78 W · 104 L-10.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Pacers52c63$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.553,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41c0…9d61backed Trail Blazers48c62.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012155.4%67 W · 54 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x383d…87eabacked Trail Blazers48c61.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0147852.9%253 W · 225 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e4a…7045backed Trail Blazers48c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.822748.9%111 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa028…0031backed Trail Blazers48c56.55$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.230654.6%167 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Trail Blazers51c55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9234247.7%163 W · 179 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Pacers53c51.98$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.431,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4c…0398backed Trail Blazers47c50.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.776251.6%32 W · 30 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7239…4389backed Trail Blazers45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.543750.1%219 W · 218 L-1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x409b…21e8backed Trail Blazers48c47.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8525855.8%144 W · 114 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Pacers53c47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0962049%304 W · 316 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Pacers44c46.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2988057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fbb…727fbacked Trail Blazers45c46.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7614448.6%70 W · 74 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd12a…46a3backed Trail Blazers48c45.83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221560%9 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Pacers53c44.51$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9991746.9%430 W · 487 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Pacers43c44.27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3442153%223 W · 198 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x290e…0783backed Pacers55c43.04$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.516949.3%34 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Trail Blazers56c41.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.031,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Pacers53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.887049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Pacers53c38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8632747.4%155 W · 172 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Pacers53c38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8632947.4%156 W · 173 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed Trail Blazers49c37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1167248.8%328 W · 344 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.