NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15cfdabd765b27089e473282f9f66691d5859d03cdd8ad7e8856501270269a8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Trail Blazers, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,075 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 8,400$4,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,366.89 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 48c | 4,977$2,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,608.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d5…ed84backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 3,773$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.69 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Pacers | 50c | 2,524$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Trail Blazers | 50c | 2,486$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.52 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pacers | 46c | 2,099$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.28 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Pacers | 49c | 571.43$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.43 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 504.02$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.05 | 369 | 49.6%183 W · 186 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 480$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Pacers | 48c | 473.53$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.24 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Trail Blazers | 47c | 408.78$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.52 | 1,190 | 32%381 W · 809 L | -58.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Pacers | 47c | 405.17$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.93 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Pacers | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Pacers | 49c | 378$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.78 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pacers | 46c | 365.8$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.53 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Pacers | 47c | 311.98$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.74 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 234 | 46.2%108 W · 126 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…aa92backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 207.69$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2841…3c5abacked Pacers | 44c | 197.69$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.58 | 213 | 49.3%105 W · 108 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…5992backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 378 | 52.9%200 W · 178 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacers | 43c | 178.69$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.49 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Pacers | 58c | 150.98$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Pacers | 48c | 142.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Trail Blazers | 64c | 131.22$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.48 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Pacers | 46c | 121.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 112$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Pacers | 47c | 102$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Pacers | 50c | 98.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Trail Blazers | 39c | 92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Pacers | 52c | 90.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Pacers | 43c | 87.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 421 | 53%223 W · 198 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Pacers | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Trail Blazers | 56c | 78.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 76.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 390 | 55.6%217 W · 173 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 71.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 295 | 56.6%167 W · 128 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 58.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7178…8fb9backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 51.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Pacers | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 48.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4168…a631backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 47.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Pacers | 28c | 44.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pacers | 46c | 41.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Pacers | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 39.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6b…e84bbacked Trail Blazers | 58c | 33.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Pacers | 43c | 27.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 24.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Pacers | 48c | 21.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d2…c802backed Pacers | 50c | 21.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 21.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)Trail Blazers won
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Deni Avdija: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Donovan Clingan: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Ivica Zubac: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Ivica Zubac: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-12.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-13.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-14.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-15.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-16.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-17.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-18.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. PacersTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pacers: O/U 246.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pacers: O/U 250.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pacers: O/U 252.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pacers: O/U 253.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.