TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,832
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,546

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,832 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x013d…0574backed Under1c2,532$33 inLost-$32.82250%0 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Under1c2,250$30 inLost-$30420%0 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under1c2,250$30 inLost-$30190%0 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7b…440fbacked Under1c2,250$30 inLost-$30190%0 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked Under1c2,250$30 inLost-$30437%3 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Under2c1,986$30 inLost-$29.79981%1 W · 97 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over61c1,766$1,078 inWon+$688.0534255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under4c1,346$54 inLost-$53.563,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26d8…0175backed Under1c850$12 inLost-$12160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under64c389.86$248 inLost-$247.6665872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Under21c351$75 inLost-$74.8131238.5%120 W · 192 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x300d…780dbacked Under21c346$71 inLost-$71.066648.5%32 W · 34 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed Under7c320$21 inLost-$21.3313837.7%52 W · 86 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under56c284.79$159 inLost-$159.491,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Over46c250.78$115 inWon+$135.9427553.5%147 W · 128 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Under7c250$17 inLost-$16.6723441.5%97 W · 137 L+13.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f4b…556bbacked Under8c239.99$20 inLost-$20219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-48.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under50c200$100 inLost-$1002,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab30…379fbacked Under6c200$12 inLost-$1230224.8%75 W · 227 L+15.5wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+43.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over50c172.77$86 inWon+$87.221,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Under7c160$11 inLost-$10.6723649.2%116 W · 120 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over44c144.93$63 inWon+$81.632,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Under16c80$13 inLost-$12.821242%89 W · 123 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Over49c66.63$33 inWon+$33.9855751.9%289 W · 268 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under51c59.15$30 inLost-$30.171,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Over42c48.26$20 inWon+$27.9945542.4%193 W · 262 L-0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Over48c40.4$19 inWon+$20.9358953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc987…123abacked Over50c20.18$10 inWon+$10.09475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+80.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.