NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 108.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aaa0bc24aa11a5352240d58782040af8168593a91cf5542cbe35df7109a2c60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40d5…2a0dbacked Under | 69c | 1,415$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 42c | 592.38$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.8 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Over | 10c | 391.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 313 | 45.7%143 W · 170 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 50c | 291.32$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.61 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 35c | 219.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.9 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…6df9backed Over | 48c | 200.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.89 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Over | 52c | 187.67$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.1 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fca…e8edbacked Under | 80c | 166.2$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 122.89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 97.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…0650backed Over | 50c | 96.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ef…ed56backed Over | 50c | 96.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 52cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 51c | 86.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 29c | 71.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Under | 71c | 62.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed Over | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -5.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xddf2…8bf0backed Under | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60a…3a43backed Under | 60c | 53.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 39c | 52.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4241…bfefbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 39.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae74…e429backed Under | 53c | 36.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf793…6265backed Over | 50c | 33.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Under | 77c | 31.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 156 | 62.8%98 W · 58 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Under | 67c | 30.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 47c | 29.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 271 | 38.7%105 W · 166 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 46c | 27.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…da63backed Over | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 55c | 18.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 108.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Dean Wade: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 2.5No won
- Jakob Poeltl: Points O/U 1.5Yes won
- Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Points O/U 4.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
- Raptors vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 221.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 224.5Under won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 4.5Yes won
- Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.