TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

James Harden: Points O/U 21.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,983
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,663

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,983 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x251f…0a14backed No0c12,691$13 inLost-$12.6930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No50c599.44$300 inLost-$299.7290863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No55c371.41$204 inLost-$203.779650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2696…c031backed Yes44c306.37$136 inWon+$170.56149.2%30 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0fd…a91ebacked Yes50c291$146 inWon+$145.59353.8%50 W · 43 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b2c…dac5backed Yes50c205.94$103 inWon+$103.0942348.5%205 W · 218 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1de9…9499backed Yes45c171.91$77 inWon+$94.5510636.8%39 W · 67 L-14.9wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked No56c155.34$87 inLost-$86.9995651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed Yes43c148.92$64 inWon+$84.769239.1%36 W · 56 L-10.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-24.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No58c108.89$63 inLost-$63.371,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9318…22b8backed Yes50c97.61$49 inWon+$48.9219543.1%84 W · 111 L-12.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed No50c88.79$44 inLost-$44.3910148.5%49 W · 52 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55af…8407backed No56c62.59$35 inLost-$35.055042%21 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ca…0d75backed Yes45c42.98$19 inWon+$23.6412735.4%45 W · 82 L-12.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed No56c37.97$21 inLost-$21.2649247.2%232 W · 260 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No52c33.6$17 inLost-$17.3126957.2%154 W · 115 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa427…f87fbacked No51c33.56$17 inLost-$17.1146255.6%257 W · 205 L+22.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked No59c30$18 inLost-$17.737753.8%203 W · 174 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked No55c29.97$16 inLost-$16.4859650.3%300 W · 296 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd76d…c5c6backed Yes50c29.1$15 inWon+$14.555754.4%31 W · 26 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x07cf…7436backed Yes43c25$11 inWon+$14.253246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No58c21.61$13 inLost-$12.6126638.7%103 W · 163 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes57c21.05$12 inWon+$9.0862047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No55c20$11 inLost-$1133049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.