NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8923812e842b25614473cea4e59cb4a27aa37ae64b2ff55ad1e9972ae4aa035

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Raptorsof Cavaliers, Raptors
Resolved: Apr 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $38,453
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $38,560

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,453 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x84cb…28adbacked Raptors	49c	6,612$3,232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,380.01	168	46.4%78 W · 90 L	-13.2wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Cavaliers	50c	2,473$1,241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,241.42	1,915	49.3%944 W · 971 L	+19.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Cavaliers	41c	2,429$992 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$991.53	1,752	40.6%712 W · 1,040 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad42…d738backed Cavaliers	55c	2,423$1,332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,332.44	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Raptors	48c	1,344$649 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$695.63	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Cavaliers	49c	1,198$591 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$591.15	931	48.4%451 W · 480 L	+34.1wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Cavaliers	48c	1,113$535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$535.14	1,645	47.5%782 W · 863 L	+40.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Cavaliers	52c	1,033$539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538.62	1,271	38.3%487 W · 784 L	-13.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Cavaliers	48c	860.52$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.27	1,317	47.8%629 W · 688 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Cavaliers	47c	402.23$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.1	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Raptors	59c	393.04$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.88	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf2…a2fabacked Cavaliers	54c	360.21$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.48	27	37%10 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	+68%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…c00abacked Cavaliers	54c	360.15$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.48	188	39.9%75 W · 113 L	-10.3wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe697…708fbacked Raptors	49c	338.69$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.48	161	53.4%86 W · 75 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked Cavaliers	57c	274.76$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.61	122	57.4%70 W · 52 L	+5.0wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Raptors	45c	250.98$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.52	319	53%169 W · 150 L	+11.5wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Cavaliers	65c	237.93$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.81	524	61.6%323 W · 201 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Raptors	49c	199.98$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.99	382	42.9%164 W · 218 L	-11.5wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4879…86c0backed Raptors	46c	196.7$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.8	92	46.7%43 W · 49 L	+7.9wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+34.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x972f…65bdbacked Raptors	50c	194$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97	121	52.9%64 W · 57 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x45e8…5169backed Raptors	55c	160.06$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.4	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Raptors	31c	153.29$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.66	448	21.4%96 W · 352 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddc4…0270backed Raptors	65c	150.77$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.88	277	45.8%127 W · 150 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-13%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8956…755fbacked Cavaliers	51c	137.05$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.3	209	51.7%108 W · 101 L	-9.1wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked Cavaliers	53c	123.26$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.33	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5081…e5acbacked Cavaliers	50c	112.24$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.62	200	55.5%111 W · 89 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14fa…73f0backed Raptors	64c	111.01$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.57	140	54.3%76 W · 64 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Raptors	49c	102.62$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.45	637	46.6%297 W · 340 L	-16.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Raptors	49c	102.62$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.45	1,286	50.8%653 W · 633 L	+11.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Raptors	49c	102.62$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.45	589	53.7%316 W · 273 L	+15.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6077…3231backed Raptors	48c	100.92$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.48	55	45.5%25 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Cavaliers	51c	100.74$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.69	898	50.9%457 W · 441 L	+19.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1155…2315backed Cavaliers	42c	96.52$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.54	221	70.6%156 W · 65 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	68cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4dc…0e2ebacked Cavaliers	68c	72.66$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.08	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	-5.9wins	-0.14per pick	49cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Cavaliers	69c	69.94$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.39	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Raptors	48c	60.53$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.47	368	52.2%192 W · 176 L	+8.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bf7…6d62backed Raptors	58c	58.74$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.67	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-2.4wins	-0.14per pick	49cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Cavaliers	36c	54.64$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.46	266	38.7%103 W · 163 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Cavaliers	33c	53.64$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	786	39.2%308 W · 478 L	+27.5wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Raptors	52c	52.44$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.17	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Cavaliers	55c	51.72$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.23	620	47.3%293 W · 327 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20f3…2c21backed Cavaliers	43c	51.19$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+3.6wins	+0.18per pick	52cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Raptors	63c	46.56$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.23	317	48.9%155 W · 162 L	-12.1wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Cavaliers	48c	46$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.08	804	40.3%324 W · 480 L	+27.4wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Raptors	44c	45.21$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.16	1,283	23.4%300 W · 983 L	-178.2wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x7fce…6476backed Raptors	52c	44.82$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.52	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2806…5feebacked Raptors	52c	44.78$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.52	37	62.2%23 W · 14 L	+6.1wins	+0.16per pick	46cpaid	+57.2%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Cavaliers	50c	44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	342	47.7%163 W · 179 L	-8.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x727b…3871backed Cavaliers	52c	43.67$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.71	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.15per pick	43cpaid	+49.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcac9…47a9backed Raptors	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2c8…d506backed Raptors	48c	40.37$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.99	62	41.9%26 W · 36 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a3c…eed1backed Cavaliers	58c	40$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	110	63.6%70 W · 40 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd5…15a8backed Raptors	65c	38.09$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.36	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6733…acb9backed Raptors	51c	35.76$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.55	78	56.4%44 W · 34 L	+7.7wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x60fe…f286backed Raptors	49c	29.11$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.88	107	45.8%49 W · 58 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Raptors	49c	26.28$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.39	1,048	51.7%542 W · 506 L	+7.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…54d1backed Cavaliers	44c	24.59$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.87	66	54.5%36 W · 30 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa796…95f9backed Cavaliers	42c	24.32$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.22	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Raptors	44c	22.73$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.73	160	20%32 W · 128 L	-27.0wins	-0.17per pick	37cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	34-0.15 edge/pick
0x40e1…65a4backed Raptors	71c	21.52$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.23	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf5e…95e3backed Raptors	58c	21.46$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.07	210	46.2%97 W · 113 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Raptors	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	667	32.4%216 W · 451 L	+41.8wins	+0.06per pick	26cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc794…d010backed Cavaliers	52c	19.28$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	29cpaid	+185.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3c2…5509backed Raptors	68c	17$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.52	184	44.6%82 W · 102 L	-11.9wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)this page
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 20.5No won
Dean Wade: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 0.5No won
Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 2.5No won
Jakob Poeltl: Points O/U 1.5Yes won
Jakob Poeltl: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5No won
James Harden: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
James Harden: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
RJ Barrett: Points O/U 4.5Yes won
RJ Barrett: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
Raptors vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5Over won
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5Over won
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5Over won
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 217.5Over won
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5Over won
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 221.5Under won
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5Under won
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 223.5Under won
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 224.5Under won
Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 5.5No won
Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 4.5Yes won
Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 1.5Yes won
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Raptors won
Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Raptors won
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Cavaliers won
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Cavaliers won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event