TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Cavaliers, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,286
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,897

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,286 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x228b…af4cbacked Cavaliers45c273.18$123 inLost-$123.31,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa57f…930ebacked Raptors51c213$108 inWon+$104.812236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Raptors53c190$101 inWon+$89.312851.6%66 W · 62 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Cavaliers8c125$10 inLost-$1097049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Raptors51c95.82$49 inWon+$46.951,57353.4%840 W · 733 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5462…fe43backed Cavaliers59c95.75$56 inLost-$56.52650%13 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Cavaliers56c79.06$44 inLost-$44.272,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52f8…ad19backed Raptors54c71.84$39 inWon+$32.9413342.9%57 W · 76 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0c…51dbbacked Cavaliers56c60.85$34 inLost-$34.084928.6%14 W · 35 L-8.7wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Cavaliers54c55.44$30 inLost-$29.772,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Raptors43c53.58$23 inWon+$30.7989850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…e5acbacked Cavaliers53c53$28 inLost-$28.0920055.5%111 W · 89 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x399d…415cbacked Raptors52c53$28 inWon+$25.442259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Raptors47c51.5$24 inWon+$27.317758.2%103 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6eca…87dabacked Raptors46c48.38$22 inWon+$26.132259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Cavaliers48c45.05$22 inLost-$21.6263746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Cavaliers48c45.05$22 inLost-$21.621,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Cavaliers48c45.05$22 inLost-$21.6236852.2%192 W · 176 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Cavaliers48c45.05$22 inLost-$21.6258953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Cavaliers58c43.1$25 inLost-$2546959.1%277 W · 192 L+28.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x982d…d208backed Raptors54c36.01$19 inWon+$16.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c75…45febacked Cavaliers63c23.48$15 inLost-$14.781668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+25.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.