TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

UTEP vs. Sam Houston Bearkats

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
UTEPof UTEP, Sam Houston Bearkats
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$600,863
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$601,149

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $600,863 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Sam Houston Bearkats41c116,958$47,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,69012549.6%62 W · 63 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed UTEP58c87,006$50,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,542.4232745.6%149 W · 178 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Sam Houston Bearkats38c50,989$19,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,379.0368440.8%279 W · 405 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked UTEP65c48,850$31,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,047.5415539.4%61 W · 94 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Sam Houston Bearkats36c41,506$14,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,769.2340541.2%167 W · 238 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked UTEP60c36,086$21,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,552.630949.5%153 W · 156 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Sam Houston Bearkats42c30,000$12,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,6008331.3%26 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked UTEP58c27,792$16,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,672.565745.6%26 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked UTEP58c24,409$14,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,151.6675651.9%392 W · 364 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed UTEP44c22,919$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,918.8519362.2%120 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed UTEP59c21,503$12,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,831.265957.6%34 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Sam Houston Bearkats42c17,348$7,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,28637749.6%187 W · 190 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Sam Houston Bearkats36c17,010$6,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,097.1264841.2%267 W · 381 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed UTEP75c16,659$12,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,126.6610448.1%50 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Sam Houston Bearkats42c15,000$6,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,299.9615745.2%71 W · 86 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcce5…bdafbacked UTEP61c10,743$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,242.543745.9%17 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Sam Houston Bearkats42c10,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,20011553%61 W · 54 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed UTEP60c9,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,60011653.4%62 W · 54 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Sam Houston Bearkats44c6,010$2,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,643.4438142.5%162 W · 219 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked UTEP57c5,924$3,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,552.436251.6%32 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked UTEP58c5,494$3,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,326.942,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc210…f0cabacked UTEP58c5,052$2,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,121.722147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d85…228ebacked Sam Houston Bearkats44c5,023$2,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2103145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed UTEP58c4,971$2,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,083.4955350.3%278 W · 275 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6327…e181backed UTEP76c4,649$3,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.15666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bba…ea6bbacked Sam Houston Bearkats38c3,990$1,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.25616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-76.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e85…4d99backed Sam Houston Bearkats43c3,911$1,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,681.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb37c…164ebacked UTEP57c3,900$2,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,676.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Sam Houston Bearkats41c3,305$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365.0825629.3%75 W · 181 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb1e…88d5backed UTEP57c3,254$1,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.134755.3%26 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd73b…70adbacked UTEP57c2,744$1,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,167.92763%17 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed UTEP56c2,715$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.557944.3%35 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1fa…ae2ebacked UTEP58c2,390$1,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x500e…5822backed UTEP57c2,137$1,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Sam Houston Bearkats34c2,029$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69010851.9%56 W · 52 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Sam Houston Bearkats41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8207126.8%19 W · 52 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Sam Houston Bearkats42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8405334%18 W · 35 L-6.1wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x22e6…26efbacked Sam Houston Bearkats42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba8…ab96backed UTEP57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+41%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Sam Houston Bearkats44c2,000$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.99728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed UTEP55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.992245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Sam Houston Bearkats6c1,996$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117806.3%5 W · 75 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9bc…73b7backed Sam Houston Bearkats43c1,757$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.31922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe7b4…0922backed UTEP57c1,754$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.392100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Sam Houston Bearkats40c1,466$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.1786243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked UTEP76c1,324$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.877664.5%49 W · 27 L+9.0wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+65.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe192…8239backed UTEP56c1,250$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5501100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked UTEP56c1,120$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.7917361.3%106 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed UTEP60c1,103$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.6710750.5%54 W · 53 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked UTEP72c1,100$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30810848.1%52 W · 56 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x260a…dbf6backed UTEP56c1,060$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.41040%4 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid-17.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x29d5…9f96backed Sam Houston Bearkats44c1,060$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked UTEP65c1,001$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.13644.4%16 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-12.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed UTEP59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4109843.9%43 W · 55 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed Sam Houston Bearkats22c963.42$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.823735.1%13 W · 24 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-39%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xac1b…318fbacked UTEP56c957.14$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Sam Houston Bearkats1c842.92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.22370.8%2 W · 235 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-98.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed UTEP56c725$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3195754.4%31 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed UTEP61c682$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.9811844.1%52 W · 66 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sam Houston Bearkats25c660$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.0857144.7%255 W · 316 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x613b…823abacked Sam Houston Bearkats37c643.02$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.999446.8%44 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Sam Houston Bearkats35c627.85$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.7662843.6%274 W · 354 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Sam Houston Bearkats42c610$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.213452.2%70 W · 64 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fc3…5a00backed Sam Houston Bearkats27c600$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.742218.2%4 W · 18 L-6.0wins-0.27per pick46cpaid-64.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Sam Houston Bearkats43c581.4$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-41.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x038f…4535backed UTEP63c542.03$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95d7…5af0backed UTEP66c530.62$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.31450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Sam Houston Bearkats43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21511436%41 W · 73 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcac4…bf62backed UTEP73c500$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.87475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1bc…9dc9backed Sam Houston Bearkats22c475.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.845437%20 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8d…f2c7backed Sam Houston Bearkats41c462.54$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.641040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ff…41cebacked UTEP58c409.66$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked UTEP61c400$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.548546.8%227 W · 258 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa9e0…9166backed UTEP56c392.86$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed UTEP68c377.68$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.1640244.8%180 W · 222 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed UTEP66c370$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.81942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f31…37a3backed UTEP56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Sam Houston Bearkats43c351$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.4650358.1%292 W · 211 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74bc…98c9backed Sam Houston Bearkats38c345.02$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.6610555.2%58 W · 47 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeba9…8ddebacked Sam Houston Bearkats45c335$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Sam Houston Bearkats33c330.14$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3119842.9%85 W · 113 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32db…938bbacked Sam Houston Bearkats45c320$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7522…7d40backed Sam Houston Bearkats32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf03b…565bbacked Sam Houston Bearkats45c311.11$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cdf…befebacked Sam Houston Bearkats44c309.09$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb90…1917backed Sam Houston Bearkats31c300$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937443.2%32 W · 42 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7840…7083backed Sam Houston Bearkats45c297.78$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ebb…c8e8backed Sam Houston Bearkats45c291$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Sam Houston Bearkats43c287.67$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.710742.1%45 W · 62 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cc7…afbabacked Sam Houston Bearkats45c284.44$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc1…a255backed Sam Houston Bearkats45c280$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked UTEP36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.784928.6%14 W · 35 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-44.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc616…0d65backed Sam Houston Bearkats45c275.56$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd054…11aebacked UTEP75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.67771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick38cpaid+98.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3575…8af2backed UTEP58c250$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+105.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1299…ba9ebacked Sam Houston Bearkats45c248.89$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdb3…2d43backed UTEP62c218.96$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.241553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Sam Houston Bearkats9c212.36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.531360%0 W · 136 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x133b…faa8backed Sam Houston Bearkats43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867041.4%29 W · 41 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ee7…12c5backed UTEP74c200$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7510246.1%47 W · 55 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.