MLB · resolved market
Phillies vs. Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46c46511b530eff9c3458b6842bc0b13d226928cdafd1ef3fec995336312d0c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philliesof Phillies, Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $193,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Phillies | 62c | 23,000$14,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,770 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fb…84b5backed Phillies | 72c | 22,777$16,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,264.49 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Guardians | 32c | 21,564$6,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,983.48 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Phillies | 62c | 20,444$12,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,768.72 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Guardians | 38c | 19,997$7,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,599 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x188d…6583backed Guardians | 30c | 11,431$3,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,423 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Guardians | 38c | 8,809$3,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,347.37 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Guardians | 38c | 5,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed Guardians | 39c | 4,424$1,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,721.27 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…743cbacked Phillies | 60c | 4,019$2,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620.36 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Phillies | 62c | 3,217$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.6 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Guardians | 28c | 3,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Guardians | 39c | 2,930$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.79 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…3b96backed Guardians | 48c | 2,143$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Guardians | 39c | 2,050$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.49 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked Phillies | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf619…4efebacked Guardians | 39c | 1,977$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.03 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Guardians | 41c | 1,746$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.82 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Phillies | 62c | 1,617$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.89 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Guardians | 32c | 1,472$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.57 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Guardians | 38c | 1,316$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.08 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…e8cbbacked Guardians | 9c | 1,045$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Phillies | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4e…437cbacked Phillies | 62c | 851.84$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.84 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Guardians | 38c | 837.28$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.14 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Guardians | 27c | 690$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.3 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Guardians | 39c | 667$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.13 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…26a2backed Phillies | 61c | 655.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.74 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Phillies | 54c | 600$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Guardians | 38c | 570.61$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.76 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Guardians | 37c | 556.87$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.45 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Guardians | 40c | 550$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.9 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…a6dbbacked Phillies | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…92bebacked Guardians | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Guardians | 36c | 497.84$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.69 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Guardians | 35c | 441.35$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.57 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Phillies | 65c | 400$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.67 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Phillies | 63c | 399.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Guardians | 38c | 389.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Guardians | 3c | 355.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Guardians | 37c | 353$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.51 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Phillies | 62c | 333.53$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.74 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Guardians | 37c | 317.15$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.35 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Guardians | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Guardians | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Guardians | 37c | 287.3$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…74a8backed Guardians | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Guardians | 31c | 237.77$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…c1cebacked Phillies | 60c | 213.47$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.79 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1999…fedbbacked Guardians | 36c | 205.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Phillies | 61c | 204.73$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.73 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Phillies | 60c | 189.89$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.95 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Guardians | 42c | 189.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3539…b17bbacked Phillies | 72c | 179.25$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3d…25b7backed Phillies | 78c | 169.57$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…e411backed Guardians | 36c | 163.47$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Phillies | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Phillies | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Phillies | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ab…eb07backed Guardians | 44c | 154.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…284cbacked Phillies | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Phillies | 60c | 128.88$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Guardians | 40c | 122.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2392…0d4bbacked Phillies | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +288%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…cdc2backed Guardians | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Phillies | 65c | 96.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…8444backed Phillies | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd5…9801backed Phillies | 61c | 86.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb97…add3backed Phillies | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd065…93e8backed Phillies | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Phillies | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…8316backed Phillies | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…0dadbacked Phillies | 69c | 71.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…fec6backed Phillies | 61c | 64.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e4…e7efbacked Guardians | 48c | 62.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…f046backed Phillies | 69c | 60.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8d…6a32backed Phillies | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…ad6abacked Guardians | 39c | 51.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Phillies | 62c | 51.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Guardians | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe300…f71abacked Phillies | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x346a…2f47backed Guardians | 38c | 47.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6720…ffccbacked Phillies | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +52%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…0775backed Phillies | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b9…14f4backed Guardians | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…a1d1backed Guardians | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e63…7e29backed Guardians | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 536 | 39.9%214 W · 322 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Guardians | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Phillies | 62c | 35.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Guardians | 35c | 32.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…adb8backed Phillies | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac9…cc1bbacked Phillies | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…c94fbacked Guardians | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…cdd1backed Guardians | 42c | 26.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…e408backed Guardians | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…d9c7backed Phillies | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -5.1wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.