La Liga · resolved market
Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x477730e08f0a5b8ad96b6216cd7a5c95f637a3d371589d7acf9af7be41fabb78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3c0…19a3backed Under | 56c | 6,999$3,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,079.39 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 46c | 5,960$2,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,748.2 | 177 | 31.1%55 W · 122 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 5,580$4,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.51 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Under | 54c | 3,802$2,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,733.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 21c | 3,389$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.09 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Under | 79c | 2,183$1,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.56 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 15c | 2,134$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.62 | 104 | 18.3%19 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 69c | 2,017$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.19 | 834 | 44.6%372 W · 462 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 13c | 1,551$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 121 | 32.2%39 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…7409backed Under | 80c | 1,160$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.78 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 60c | 1,124$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.69 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…8814backed Over | 46c | 1,047$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 44c | 1,039$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.35 | 403 | 57.1%230 W · 173 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed Under | 56c | 764.72$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.33 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 19c | 646.86$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.75 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 44c | 536.35$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.99 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Over | 44c | 533.13$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.72 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 44c | 423.54$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.36 | 239 | 57.7%138 W · 101 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 59c | 404.3$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.57 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Over | 35c | 387.82$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.03 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…f549backed Under | 80c | 365.56$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 44c | 346.48$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.45 | 203 | 60.1%122 W · 81 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Over | 44c | 346.48$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.45 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Under | 74c | 344.54$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.58 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f12…f51ebacked Under | 69c | 284.46$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 13c | 221.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…2282backed Over | 45c | 220.84$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 23c | 213.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 73c | 211.97$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 199 | 53.3%106 W · 93 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 202.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 73c | 196.76$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 57c | 194.78$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.73 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ff…35ccbacked Over | 12c | 194.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464d…d99bbacked Under | 71c | 166.03$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 39c | 164$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 608 | 32.4%197 W · 411 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 77c | 128.83$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 78 | 65.4%51 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355b…18ecbacked Under | 79c | 124.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 34c | 124$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 458 | 41%188 W · 270 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…6f10backed Over | 31c | 123.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Under | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Over | 12c | 99.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 55c | 97.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 153 | 44.4%68 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 421 | 58%244 W · 177 L | +29.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Under | 55c | 71.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 45c | 63.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7569…ac76backed Under | 56c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 24c | 59.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 45c | 55.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 227 | 29.1%66 W · 161 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…5afebacked Over | 45c | 53.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…b1a2backed Under | 56c | 52.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…8d07backed Under | 70c | 47.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…1d8ebacked Over | 25c | 46.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…3762backed Under | 74c | 39.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1c…0144backed Under | 80c | 37.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 58c | 33.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 45c | 32.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 76c | 31.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 744 | 57.5%428 W · 316 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Over | 47c | 29.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…72f6backed Under | 68c | 21.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.31per pick | 62cpaid | -58%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2720backed Under | 63c | 21.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba89…0fefbacked Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a01…2e3dbacked Under | 62c | 19.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3834…204bbacked Under | 77c | 19.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 78c | 16.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 227 | 58.1%132 W · 95 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5this page
- Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5)Sevilla FC won
- Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5)Sevilla FC won
- Spread: Sevilla FC (-1.5)Club Atlético de Madrid won
- Spread: Sevilla FC (-2.5)Club Atlético de Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.