TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

FC Bayern München vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,405

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,405 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7748…58d7backed Under64c7,794$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under62c7,380$4,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,575.86757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c67…a813backed Under66c3,104$2,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,048.64966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over38c3,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,859.9933244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over36c2,987$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920.6434144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad5c…664abacked Under66c2,578$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7001546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4922…34a7backed Over35c1,881$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.443729.7%11 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over36c1,826$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.0738748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa313…1f26backed Over29c1,674$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.731926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4594…b1acbacked Under64c1,563$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Under15c1,466$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Over29c1,443$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.846921.7%15 W · 54 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over38c1,202$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.141,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over53c1,198$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.2811142.3%47 W · 64 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under67c1,000$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67053645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Over52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4801457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over30c1,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7008844.3%39 W · 49 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+19.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x31d8…a9cebacked Over31c900$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6213452.9%18 W · 16 L+7.6wins+0.22per pick31cpaid+85.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Under60c883.3$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.4319139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under58c831.28$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.341,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cf7…cb5bbacked Under74c824.36$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607862.5%5 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick74cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Over55c704.94$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.748932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Under61c621.9$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.3611644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over36c575.61$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.3935856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x274b…d408backed Over35c571.43$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.432250%11 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40b9…b002backed Under62c545$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.93525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-35.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Over37c540.54$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.545246.2%24 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Over39c523.93$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.93333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3265…d5b8backed Under53c500$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over20c499.65$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.728124.7%20 W · 61 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over35c471.01$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.9675142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ca0…c1b7backed Under64c453.13$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd88d…f708backed Over36c447.22$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.221631.3%5 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid+14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over37c445.82$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.8719254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5f1…2867backed Under63c402$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bcb…5731backed Under61c399.97$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.98425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-67.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x478a…2deabacked Under63c386.27$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.572142.9%9 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ffc…4487backed Under61c327.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda0f…4082backed Over39c301.25$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed Over33c300$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.9322562.2%140 W · 85 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3cf…493bbacked Under63c299.99$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.995974.6%44 W · 15 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.716134.4%21 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf1c…7b26backed Over39c283.36$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.853100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+90%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab00…b2b1backed Over39c278.46$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.863100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+142%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbefe…2d45backed Over36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.782552%13 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2961…cfcfbacked Under62c258.06$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1606845.6%31 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed Over38c256.58$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.085054%27 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a4b…f7d2backed Under18c250$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under73c240.66$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.943,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed Under7c235$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.45616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c88…5463backed Under64c231.25$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-50%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb977…aa8ebacked Over39c226.09$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.913100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+85.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over35c221.99$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.2930054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x803b…3134backed Under62c214.58$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x216b…fe46backed Over45c213.47$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.027962%49 W · 30 L+10.4wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+23.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0811857.6%68 W · 50 L+15.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe398…4ce5backed Under79c201.27$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1592766.7%18 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Over27c200$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14612538.4%48 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a2b…c97cbacked Under75c200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick65cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc94c…ba65backed Under15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302321.7%5 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+118.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d5c…1768backed Under62c199.99$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.993129%9 W · 22 L-7.2wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-47%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x5955…f86ebacked Under63c196.26$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b58…d734backed Under61c194.73$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0684…d1fabacked Over38c190.45$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.081637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x635d…c863backed Under62c187.32$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.14425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-62.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3f5…b09cbacked Over39c175.81$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick29cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeba1…44dfbacked Over58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5426…bc07backed Over37c169$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+41.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x446b…132abacked Under61c158.9$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe46c…8526backed Under64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75c9…9205backed Under64c125$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf63d…700bbacked Under62c118.24$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.31250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c77…8f06backed Under63c111.11$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Over38c107.69$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.772860.7%17 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+33.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd81c…367ebacked Under62c106.49$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7702…bbbbbacked Under62c106.04$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked Over78c105.26$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.269476.6%72 W · 22 L+16.8wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+49.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb5c…ae4ebacked Under62c103.07$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd359…6007backed Under64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75af…5d46backed Under63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c16…c36fbacked Over30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe00…c4f3backed Under62c95.11$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9720%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1349…359bbacked Under62c93.47$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7baf…99a7backed Over32c93.31$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.312817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdf4…40fabacked Over55c91.27$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.275364.2%34 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over36c90.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.241,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa073…da6fbacked Under62c88.48$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1980…5edabacked Under62c85.18$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56f4…7655backed Under62c83.49$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.76520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-71%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0b3…091cbacked Over37c82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.66683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick50cpaid+70.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xddbd…e738backed Under63c82$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.66862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under63c79.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5037344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9269…5731backed Under61c78.53$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f14…c845backed Under64c78.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-40.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1e6…298dbacked Under62c76.97$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d54…6c91backed Under48c75.6$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.291553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd235…6eebbacked Over40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4511943.7%52 W · 67 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under14c73.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5833938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1aef…32cfbacked Under63c69.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.