World Politics · resolved market
Will PNP (People’s National Party) win the most seats in the 2025 Jamaica House of Representatives election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a58af6e8093f9f495354b2be5e2d57f62cee92dab3e1e76a55f51c801756ca9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 28c | 2,047$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.64 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 34c | 1,569$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.71 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 24c | 1,246$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.34 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 26c | 891.6$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 51c | 822$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.61 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 77c | 690.76$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.57 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 53c | 685$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.67 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 51c | 504.05$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.36 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 500$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.2 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked No | 36c | 483.92$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +2,378.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 13c | 443.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 65c | 427.63$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.23 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 54c | 392.99$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.54 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 25c | 325.08$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.86 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 47c | 300.1$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.05 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 44c | 260.56$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.71 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…98f7backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed Yes | 64c | 250$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…91adbacked No | 68c | 200$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 196.69$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.44 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…ad8fbacked Yes | 64c | 194$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 54c | 155$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…6e5ebacked Yes | 68c | 146$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…e330backed Yes | 37c | 130$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 31c | 117.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ff…f475backed Yes | 20c | 106.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 49c | 101$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…363fbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 59c | 91.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 50c | 91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 84.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 53c | 63.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5667…80dfbacked Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce6…477bbacked Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd14e…7e5fbacked Yes | 40c | 36.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb1…2630backed No | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PNP (People’s National Party) win the most seats in the 2025 Jamaica House of Representatives election?this page
- Will JLP (Jamaica Labour Party) win the most seats in the 2025 Jamaica House of Representatives election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.