World Politics · resolved market
Will JLP (Jamaica Labour Party) win the most seats in the 2025 Jamaica House of Representatives election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3afa81bb94906e2ffb00d6f7bd93bcc15be7589ffc6c4d842e5f80dbc7359549
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf737…37aabacked Yes | 73c | 4,511$3,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.61 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 54c | 2,244$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.73 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 53c | 705$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.3 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 37c | 660$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.8 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 32c | 623.68$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.26 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 73c | 609.38$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.67 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 37c | 572.04$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.82 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 67c | 556.39$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.12 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…b297backed Yes | 36c | 555.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 503.14$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.42 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 74c | 501$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.26 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked Yes | 36c | 500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +2,378.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 29c | 459.09$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.61 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 36c | 452$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.66 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…9e30backed Yes | 65c | 420.38$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.82 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 48c | 391$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.81 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 69c | 368.07$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 15c | 349.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 29c | 327.84$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 25c | 283.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5e…1d41backed Yes | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeafe…1195backed Yes | 70c | 216.73$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed No | 29c | 209.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…f21ebacked Yes | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…f163backed Yes | 74c | 201.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 64c | 200$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 49c | 200$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 189.25$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…cf89backed Yes | 73c | 176.6$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 51c | 176$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.75 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 49c | 144$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.04 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 36c | 114.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 27c | 106$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 49c | 101$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…af8bbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 42c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed Yes | 75c | 79.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 72cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a75…0230backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aff…f16abacked Yes | 63c | 67.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…252abacked Yes | 65c | 64.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…8358backed Yes | 73c | 61.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 69c | 60.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 58.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…91adbacked Yes | 63c | 50.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb3…c25abacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb449…1a89backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be1…36d8backed Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…3e07backed Yes | 70c | 45.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 29c | 43.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 45c | 39.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 71c | 39.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…f8edbacked Yes | 71c | 38.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x642b…7d31backed Yes | 65c | 37.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…033cbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0368…8febbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe42a…bf9ebacked Yes | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe328…9f4abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…18c4backed Yes | 64c | 23.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9809…3416backed Yes | 64c | 21.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…8f8dbacked Yes | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked No | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d00…564abacked Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…c3aabacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4df…c866backed Yes | 77c | 19.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will JLP (Jamaica Labour Party) win the most seats in the 2025 Jamaica House of Representatives election?this page
- Will PNP (People’s National Party) win the most seats in the 2025 Jamaica House of Representatives election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.