NFL · resolved market
Broncos vs. Steelers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ba4df57f1b400a5eeb1ac62f2e684bca2f3bc5843b9f2f07125334f4f7747dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Steelersof Broncos, Steelers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Broncos | 44c | 10,015$4,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,453.11 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Broncos | 38c | 5,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Broncos | 42c | 4,750$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Steelers | 57c | 4,638$2,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,981.19 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Broncos | 43c | 3,187$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.41 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Broncos | 11c | 3,004$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.49 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Broncos | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Steelers | 72c | 2,743$1,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.53 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Steelers | 66c | 2,722$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.9 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Broncos | 4c | 1,900$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -85%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Broncos | 9c | 1,138$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.93 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e0…fe50backed Steelers | 74c | 1,084$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.52 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Steelers | 57c | 1,000$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.5 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Steelers | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9d…39b7backed Broncos | 21c | 950$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Broncos | 5c | 855$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Broncos | 16c | 800.26$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 217 | 13.8%30 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Steelers | 56c | 614.09$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.38 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Steelers | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28eb…fd31backed Steelers | 59c | 554$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…5effbacked Steelers | 59c | 476.61$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.41 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Broncos | 42c | 444$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.48 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Broncos | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Steelers | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Broncos | 13c | 303.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Steelers | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…aee3backed Steelers | 61c | 272$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.24 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Steelers | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Broncos | 19c | 231.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed Broncos | 43c | 210$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Broncos | 14c | 210$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 114 | 7.9%9 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Steelers | 58c | 200.71$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.3 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Broncos | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…07c3backed Steelers | 58c | 181.03$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.03 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc626…2beabacked Steelers | 57c | 173.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.93 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…e0d3backed Steelers | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 198 | 64.6%128 W · 70 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Steelers | 58c | 171.45$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 195 | 64.6%126 W · 69 L | +12.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Steelers | 62c | 166$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…971fbacked Steelers | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7173…7d75backed Broncos | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…36f3backed Broncos | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x136e…393ebacked Steelers | 58c | 105.17$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…07a3backed Steelers | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Steelers | 63c | 79.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Steelers | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Broncos | 33c | 68.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9058…9c5fbacked Steelers | 58c | 65.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Broncos | 43c | 59.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -12.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd37b…3802backed Broncos | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Steelers | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a58…bf33backed Steelers | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Steelers | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 375 | 56.3%211 W · 164 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Steelers | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 233 | 51.9%121 W · 112 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Steelers | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Broncos | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Steelers | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e39…9ca2backed Steelers | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Broncos | 43c | 48.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe5…f089backed Broncos | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0d…8b53backed Broncos | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Broncos | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…3d76backed Steelers | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…4aecbacked Steelers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Steelers | 57c | 34.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 284 | 36.3%103 W · 181 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ec…8692backed Steelers | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…6df6backed Steelers | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 192 | 61.5%118 W · 74 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d36…4a5abacked Steelers | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Steelers | 56c | 34.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…3f08backed Steelers | 61c | 33.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa715…a8bcbacked Steelers | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Broncos | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd798…fedfbacked Steelers | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…0477backed Steelers | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b3…1832backed Steelers | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…0b71backed Steelers | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…63d5backed Steelers | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8024…ba91backed Steelers | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 44 | 79.5%35 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.