NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c611e29bf2cffc9fb28d75808451d5b9f64493ea080ca7ffb402515a9f13343
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,292
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,292 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 50c | 70,106$35,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,053.1 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Over | 50c | 69,882$34,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,940.79 | 197 | 54.3%107 W · 90 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 1,976$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.89 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 56c | 1,938$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.23 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e59…307dbacked Under | 51c | 951.57$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.3 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 42c | 903.89$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.25 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 59c | 684.44$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.62 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 368.4$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.2 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 324.34$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.32 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 53c | 258.31$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.29 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Over | 50c | 232.8$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 234 | 46.2%108 W · 126 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Under | 44c | 220.63$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x190f…01f3backed Under | 48c | 206.34$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 45c | 175.88$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 60c | 144.7$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 49c | 136.69$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Under | 50c | 113.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 361 | 53.5%193 W · 168 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3676…330cbacked Under | 41c | 102.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f1…3fd9backed Under | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 50c | 76.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 48c | 75.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed Over | 46c | 67.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 295 | 56.6%167 W · 128 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 41c | 52.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 52c | 35.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked Over | 51c | 30.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…2c9bbacked Under | 50c | 28.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 43c | 24.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 75 | 72%54 W · 21 L | +11.7wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +22%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…f2c6backed Under | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Over | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 149 | 31.5%47 W · 102 L | -18.4wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 59c | 23.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c0…d718backed Over | 51c | 21.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5this page
- Brandon Ingram: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Brandon Ingram: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Kings vs. RaptorsKings won
- Kings vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Kings vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Kings vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Kings vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Kings vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Kings vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Malik Monk: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Spread: Raptors (-11.5)Kings won
- Spread: Raptors (-12.5)Kings won
- Spread: Raptors (-13.5)Kings won
- Spread: Raptors (-14.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.