NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6449a32e5763a0105daa0975805e6508d32108d5437caf26be1294db5e70d537
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Raptors, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Kings | 49c | 21,519$10,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,974.61 | 431 | 48.7%210 W · 221 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Raptors | 51c | 11,891$6,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,038.55 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb15…0f02backed Raptors | 51c | 9,516$4,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,853 | 166 | 40.4%67 W · 99 L | -14.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Kings | 51c | 9,138$4,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,470.07 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…2653backed Raptors | 49c | 7,924$3,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,882.98 | 162 | 49.4%80 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raptors | 50c | 7,561$3,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,762.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68ca…9f73backed Raptors | 50c | 6,243$3,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,121.55 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba12…6a47backed Kings | 50c | 5,500$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Kings | 51c | 4,521$2,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,223.14 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors | 49c | 4,120$2,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,026.09 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca40…83f6backed Raptors | 48c | 3,194$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.06 | 129 | 45.7%59 W · 70 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kings | 48c | 2,414$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.17 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Kings | 50c | 1,791$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.33 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Raptors | 51c | 1,763$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.69 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Raptors | 50c | 1,352$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.85 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kings | 49c | 1,100$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.05 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Raptors | 8c | 1,098$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Raptors | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Kings | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Raptors | 50c | 803.65$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.83 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…ad14backed Raptors | 50c | 776$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kings | 49c | 733.8$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.24 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kings | 53c | 689.84$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.64 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Kings | 52c | 635.41$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.99 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Kings | 52c | 635.41$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.99 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Raptors | 51c | 570.71$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.06 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Kings | 52c | 566.97$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.15 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Raptors | 49c | 555$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.95 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Raptors | 51c | 424.7$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.6 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Raptors | 51c | 380.63$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.12 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Kings | 52c | 373.54$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.3 | 349 | 53%185 W · 164 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Kings | 52c | 373.54$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.3 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Kings | 52c | 297.43$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.77 | 592 | 50.2%297 W · 295 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Kings | 52c | 297.43$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.77 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Raptors | 49c | 260.1$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.15 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Kings | 52c | 224.12$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.58 | 234 | 46.2%108 W · 126 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Kings | 53c | 209.02$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.24 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Raptors | 49c | 208.44$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.54 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings | 52c | 197.44$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.03 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Raptors | 51c | 194.12$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…5992backed Kings | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 378 | 52.9%200 W · 178 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Kings | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Raptors | 50c | 145.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Kings | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Raptors | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Kings | 50c | 97.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Raptors | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 660 | 46.4%306 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x015d…7bc7backed Raptors | 50c | 76.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Raptors | 50c | 66.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 238 | 40.8%97 W · 141 L | -16.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Raptors | 53c | 58.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Raptors | 49c | 55.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Raptors | 51c | 54.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Raptors | 50c | 52.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…f329backed Kings | 52c | 46.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Raptors | 49c | 45.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Kings | 52c | 42.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 378 | 53.4%202 W · 176 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed Kings | 51c | 38.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c6…dcacbacked Raptors | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…d11fbacked Kings | 52c | 36.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Kings | 47c | 35.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…b096backed Kings | 50c | 29.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4acd…66d4backed Kings | 51c | 28.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Raptors | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 332 | 51.2%170 W · 162 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Kings | 50c | 22.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 533 | 49.3%263 W · 270 L | -28.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…f7a1backed Kings | 51c | 21.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -9.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Kings | 75c | 18.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…3269backed Kings | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-12.5)this page
- Brandon Ingram: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Brandon Ingram: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Kings vs. RaptorsKings won
- Kings vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Kings vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Kings vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Over won
- Kings vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Over won
- Kings vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Kings vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Kings vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Malik Monk: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- RJ Barrett: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Scottie Barnes: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Spread: Raptors (-11.5)Kings won
- Spread: Raptors (-13.5)Kings won
- Spread: Raptors (-14.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.