Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ccae08b3c4fd63dde53e81e176e055fa907f5cf8056f8ae70edf67b17a31168
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 640.39$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed Yes | 42c | 474.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.95 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 51c | 387$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.92 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 324.09$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.6 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 307.84$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 45c | 290.6$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.83 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 275$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 30c | 246.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 41c | 230.85$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.6 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 52c | 220.03$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.61 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 40c | 193.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 52c | 190.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.62 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 175.69$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 52c | 175$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 62c | 161.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 47c | 159.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 48c | 146$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.82 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 139.74$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 48c | 137.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 56c | 126.76$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 45c | 126$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 12c | 114.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 67c | 113.22$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 53c | 112.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 48c | 109.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 50c | 109$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 45c | 107.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 106.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 46c | 106.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 43c | 106.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 106.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 54c | 106$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 102.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4a…da84backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 45c | 97.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed No | 58c | 96.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 48c | 92.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 42c | 89.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 56c | 89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 53c | 84.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 60c | 81.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 45c | 80.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 76.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 75.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 40c | 69.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 69.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 48c | 67.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 66.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 53c | 66.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 59c | 66.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 58c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 31c | 64.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked Yes | 48c | 62.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 34c | 62.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 62.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 43c | 60.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 40c | 58.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 42c | 54.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 45c | 53.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 28c | 53.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 51.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 36c | 50.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked Yes | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 48c | 47.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 41c | 46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…697fbacked No | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 62c | 39.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 53c | 39.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 49c | 38.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 46c | 37.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 52c | 37.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 59c | 37.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 55c | 36.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d03…6c9fbacked Yes | 30c | 35.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 52c | 34.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 47c | 33.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed No | 46c | 33.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 46c | 32.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 68c | 32.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 48c | 31.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 48c | 30.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed Yes | 51c | 29.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 50c | 29.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 53c | 28.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 53c | 27.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 51c | 27.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 56c | 27.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed No | 55c | 26.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x0f07…d756backed No | 53c | 25.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 47c | 25.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 50c | 25.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.