Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e0adada7f68bbaa6beb41a696ee7e2276d524df5f1ff64698f86cc9352788d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 50c | 1,475$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.03 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 68c | 951.88$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.28 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe373…3736backed No | 42c | 799.94$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.97 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 58c | 766.82$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.74 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 44c | 671.91$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.82 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 573.4$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 64c | 555.22$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 485.96$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 59c | 477.07$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 53c | 457.91$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.61 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 324.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 40c | 313.06$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 40c | 268.73$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.42 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 256.46$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 31c | 245.52$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.41 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 55c | 221.96$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.88 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 36c | 204.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed No | 37c | 199.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 39c | 180.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 38c | 175.93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 173.07$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 13c | 168.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 46c | 165$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 149.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 42c | 135$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 56c | 129.88$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 128.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 66c | 126$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 54c | 114.54$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 43c | 111.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 109.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 33c | 107.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 104.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 44c | 96.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 39c | 95.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 57c | 92.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 47c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed Yes | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 36c | 89.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 12c | 86.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ae…327abacked Yes | 56c | 85.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 58c | 81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 49c | 80.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 70.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 59c | 62.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x816d…47d0backed No | 33c | 60.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 54c | 58.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 68c | 57.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…0ca2backed No | 44c | 55.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b5…c585backed No | 39c | 53.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 39c | 51.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed Yes | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…7347backed No | 41c | 51.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 66c | 50.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…35f7backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 48c | 48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 38c | 46.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 39c | 43.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 45c | 43.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 39c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 39c | 42.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 52c | 41.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 41.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7e…08ccbacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 34c | 36.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 62c | 35.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 52c | 34.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed Yes | 53c | 34.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 54c | 33.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Yes | 39c | 31.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d964backed No | 43c | 30.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 46c | 30.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 42c | 28.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 54c | 25.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 57c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 64c | 23.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…9a9ebacked No | 48c | 22.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b09…68babacked Yes | 64c | 22.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 45c | 22.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed No | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 20.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.