South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e60b2a097d673e6239118b24ecc70642c5ceb08d789bbe811f2eaffa1435ec2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Clube do Remoof Fluminense FC, Clube do Remo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ad7…42aabacked Fluminense FC | 39c | 69,311$26,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,860.11 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Clube do Remo | 64c | 16,202$10,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,908.42 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Clube do Remo | 61c | 11,101$6,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,329.49 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Clube do Remo | 62c | 5,587$3,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,106.46 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Clube do Remo | 61c | 5,077$3,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,980.13 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Clube do Remo | 61c | 5,073$3,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.36 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Clube do Remo | 61c | 4,695$2,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,822.78 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Clube do Remo | 62c | 3,721$2,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.58 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Clube do Remo | 62c | 3,519$2,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.14 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Clube do Remo | 61c | 2,500$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Clube do Remo | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Clube do Remo | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 248 | 55.2%137 W · 111 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Clube do Remo | 62c | 1,668$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.67 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Clube do Remo | 61c | 1,640$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.57 | 310 | 39.7%123 W · 187 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Clube do Remo | 66c | 1,573$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.95 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Clube do Remo | 62c | 1,568$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.84 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Fluminense FC | 39c | 1,547$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.4 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Clube do Remo | 61c | 1,252$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.45 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…961ebacked Fluminense FC | 37c | 1,118$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked Clube do Remo | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Fluminense FC | 7c | 838.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Clube do Remo | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Clube do Remo | 61c | 430$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.7 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Clube do Remo | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Fluminense FC | 40c | 312$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Fluminense FC | 40c | 312$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Clube do Remo | 61c | 293.26$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.37 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked Clube do Remo | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Clube do Remo | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 249 | 56.6%141 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked Clube do Remo | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Clube do Remo | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 213 | 58.7%125 W · 88 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked Clube do Remo | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Clube do Remo | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Clube do Remo | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 288 | 51.7%149 W · 139 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Clube do Remo | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 230 | 56.5%130 W · 100 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Clube do Remo | 61c | 190$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Clube do Remo | 62c | 162$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Fluminense FC | 37c | 160.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Clube do Remo | 62c | 156$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 153 | 59.5%91 W · 62 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Fluminense FC | 40c | 128.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Clube do Remo | 63c | 118.51$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…bd60backed Clube do Remo | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Clube do Remo | 61c | 102$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 193 | 49.2%95 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085d…c89ebacked Clube do Remo | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Clube do Remo | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Clube do Remo | 61c | 92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 412 | 62.1%256 W · 156 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Clube do Remo | 61c | 82.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Clube do Remo | 50c | 76.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 321 | 39.6%127 W · 194 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Clube do Remo | 61c | 70.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Clube do Remo | 61c | 64.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Fluminense FC | 40c | 61.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Fluminense FC | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Clube do Remo | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed Clube do Remo | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Fluminense FC | 44c | 47.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Clube do Remo | 62c | 43.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Clube do Remo | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 242 | 57%138 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Clube do Remo | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 189 | 59.3%112 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Clube do Remo | 62c | 33.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 232 | 53%123 W · 109 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Clube do Remo | 51c | 32.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Clube do Remo | 62c | 31.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…70ffbacked Fluminense FC | 39c | 30.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Clube do Remo | 50c | 27.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 168 | 64.9%109 W · 59 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Clube do Remo | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 213 | 66.7%142 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Clube do Remo | 62c | 26.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Clube do Remo | 61c | 24.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Clube do Remo | 61c | 23.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Clube do Remo | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Fluminense FC | 54c | 22.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Fluminense FC | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Clube do Remo | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 216 | 57.9%125 W · 91 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Clube do Remo | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 203 | 60.6%123 W · 80 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Clube do Remo | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 220 | 58.6%129 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Clube do Remo | 63c | 19.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 167 | 51.5%86 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Clube do Remo | 63c | 17.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)this page
- Fluminense FC vs. Clube do Remo: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Clube do Remo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fluminense FC vs. Clube do Remo: Clube do Remo 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Clube do Remo: Clube do Remo O/U 1.5Under won
- Fluminense FC vs. Clube do Remo: Fluminense FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Clube do Remo: Fluminense FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Clube do Remo: Fluminense FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Fluminense FC vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 0.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 2.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 3.5Under won
- Fluminense FC vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Fluminense FC vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Clube do Remo (-1.5)Fluminense FC won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)Clube do Remo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.