NBA · resolved market

Suns vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e777e5d7b96356dca280bdad8a105176631e567f66eb889d3886062a5c828d8

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $14,561
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $14,064

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,561 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xafaf…1635backed Under	45c	2,822$1,275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,546.69	1,036	47.6%493 W · 543 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	45c	2,293$1,040 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,253.75	1,282	43.4%557 W · 725 L	-51.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	54c	1,549$836 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$836	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	66c	872.54$574 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$574.29	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Under	34c	780.99$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$515.85	184	38.6%71 W · 113 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over	66c	777.06$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512.54	1,271	38.3%487 W · 784 L	-13.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under	75c	666.66$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.66	658	72.8%479 W · 179 L	+46.1wins	+0.07per pick	66cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	26c	451.22$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.54	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f5e…1a04backed Over	62c	393.56$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.31	61	62.3%38 W · 23 L	+5.9wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b43…fae9backed Over	54c	363.98$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.55	311	51.1%159 W · 152 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf90…8e17backed Under	38c	312.86$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.39	474	36.7%174 W · 300 L	-16.8wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b60…9c7ebacked Under	39c	303.66$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.23	226	43.8%99 W · 127 L	-8.9wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	50c	203.38$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.87	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac1a…813ebacked Under	40c	181.97$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.18	172	50.6%87 W · 85 L	+6.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under	45c	150$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.8	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	46c	149.43$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.49	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under	48c	128.68$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.29	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under	38c	104.08$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.46	813	49.4%402 W · 411 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Under	48c	101.68$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.25	653	49.9%326 W · 327 L	+20.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae7b…aec1backed Over	70c	90.89$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.62	34	55.9%19 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Over	56c	84.01$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.75	349	53%185 W · 164 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70f9…f25bbacked Over	60c	81.01$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.6	114	51.8%59 W · 55 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	61c	80$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.45	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under	44c	65.54$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.71	1,532	42.5%651 W · 881 L	-17.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over	56c	49.65$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.81	1,048	51.7%542 W · 506 L	+7.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Under	46c	49.43$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.69	616	38.5%237 W · 379 L	-8.1wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…e5acbacked Under	48c	33.59$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.46	200	55.5%111 W · 89 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6d1…c15ebacked Over	64c	30.35$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.33	51	60.8%31 W · 20 L	+4.1wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under	37c	30.23$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.04	1,399	46.4%649 W · 750 L	-13.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Under	37c	30.23$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.04	1,141	48%548 W · 593 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Under	39c	29.31$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.88	211	49.3%104 W · 107 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under	46c	28.92$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.62	935	43.6%408 W · 527 L	-32.6wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Over	57c	24$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.68	717	52%373 W · 344 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d2b…5271backed Over	61c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.15	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Under	52c	19.59$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	175	53.7%94 W · 81 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeed1…0d39backed Over	60c	18.3$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.98	76	50%38 W · 38 L	-5.3wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Suns vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event