Fifa International · resolved market
Colombia to score first vs. Portugal?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4eb97ed3b1fd8c3c0c4dbec753f66ae940bc1268c13f2c66e2994685777ad27f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62ca…1760backed No | 69c | 9,623$6,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,986.75 | 258 | 44.6%115 W · 143 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 30c | 7,722$2,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,303.33 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…bd70backed No | 70c | 7,482$5,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,264.85 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 26c | 6,739$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.39 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Yes | 32c | 4,483$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440.08 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00b9…4ca6backed Yes | 36c | 1,649$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.61 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…6236backed No | 70c | 1,400$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.37 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 34c | 999$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.52 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…1b86backed No | 68c | 706.78$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.17 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5e…0381backed Yes | 44c | 703.03$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.36 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…c9eabacked No | 68c | 591.21$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.26 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93c…74e0backed Yes | 37c | 587.73$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 50c | 586.59$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.19 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 42c | 539.96$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.54 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 59c | 496.25$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.27 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…369bbacked Yes | 41c | 489.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 59c | 487.61$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.87 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf2…326abacked Yes | 50c | 478$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.77 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…9e97backed Yes | 44c | 457.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 282 | 51.4%145 W · 137 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9709…52abbacked No | 61c | 393.19$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.16 | 192 | 47.9%92 W · 100 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 63c | 292$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.04 | 597 | 52.1%311 W · 286 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 44c | 286.02$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.13 | 1,114 | 49.4%550 W · 564 L | +57.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 63c | 272$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.64 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd98…d944backed Yes | 49c | 264.59$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 37c | 261$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09d…b15dbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 165 | 49.1%81 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab0…cbe3backed Yes | 39c | 244.49$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8aa…e4d1backed Yes | 32c | 231.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 251 | 50.6%127 W · 124 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…fc1dbacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 66c | 211.8$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Yes | 67c | 184$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.28 | 258 | 65.9%170 W · 88 L | +40.1wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x32e3…3a5cbacked No | 68c | 175$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…4fe6backed No | 68c | 175$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 243 | 44.9%109 W · 134 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0afd…1cb4backed No | 69c | 175$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb175…0396backed No | 68c | 175$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed No | 68c | 175$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 221 | 39.8%88 W · 133 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…bf5abacked Yes | 31c | 157.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 156.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.39 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5d…b20abacked Yes | 32c | 148.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed No | 64c | 130.56$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 130$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…baa9backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed8…7c2fbacked Yes | 45c | 112.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 485 | 26.8%130 W · 355 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…c3d5backed Yes | 44c | 104.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73c…f222backed Yes | 30c | 103.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…4d0abacked Yes | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 283 | 26.1%74 W · 209 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460b…4d66backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf08f…8840backed Yes | 37c | 97.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 63c | 96.83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 63c | 90.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66d5…87f4backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 38.4%58 W · 93 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…9e8dbacked Yes | 32c | 84.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 322 | 54%174 W · 148 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe535…96d3backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 28c | 69.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9583…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 69.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 141 | 48.2%68 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…bb87backed Yes | 44c | 68.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 139 | 30.9%43 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 59c | 68.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 722 | 47.2%341 W · 381 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae4…5c60backed Yes | 38c | 66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Yes | 38c | 64.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…de2abacked Yes | 39c | 62.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 42c | 60.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 586 | 42.8%251 W · 335 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…3323backed Yes | 42c | 59.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed5…4d20backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Yes | 37c | 55.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,536 | 49.1%754 W · 782 L | +32.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad7…ed11backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…ffbebacked Yes | 25c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 594 | 53.4%317 W · 277 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe329…982ebacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…80acbacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 28.1%38 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 208 | 62%129 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes | 42c | 36.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 455 | 28.4%129 W · 326 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adb…076cbacked Yes | 45c | 35.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…8434backed Yes | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…ba99backed Yes | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 153 | 35.3%54 W · 99 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdb…af66backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…eff6backed Yes | 38c | 28.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 61c | 27.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1,601 | 47.8%765 W · 836 L | +51.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colombia to score first vs. Portugal?this page
- Colombia vs. Portugal: Neither team to score first?Yes won
- Portugal to score first vs. Colombia?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.