Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ee0f00d2d28fddab08692f29615a5fdd85d9c2c3502312f90c221570e786b38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf75f…b458backed No | 61c | 783.39$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.11 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 31c | 696.5$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.49 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 28c | 510.8$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.36 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 413.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 404.25$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 75c | 400.37$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.13 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 43c | 368.89$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.16 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 36c | 354.17$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.22 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…ffacbacked Yes | 37c | 334.71$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.19 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 39c | 330.59$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.11 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 280.12$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 240.75$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.35 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 60c | 237.97$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.97 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 51c | 237.35$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.47 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 16c | 226.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.31 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 59c | 211.5$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.67 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 209.4$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 78c | 191.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 179.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 28c | 178.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.66 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 78c | 167.12$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 69c | 155$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 155$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 66c | 150.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 32c | 147.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 147.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 138.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 137.6$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 67c | 136.86$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 74c | 135.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 74c | 131.61$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed Yes | 34c | 130$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 129.12$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 58c | 117.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 67c | 116.11$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 67c | 110.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 105.66$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 29c | 103.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 41c | 100.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fd…7e7ebacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 33c | 99.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 69c | 98.61$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c0…22b4backed Yes | 19c | 98.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4a6dbacked Yes | 31c | 96.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 93.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked No | 33c | 88.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 81.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 42c | 81.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 63c | 79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb5…0f28backed No | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 75.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 40c | 66.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b7…223abacked Yes | 31c | 64.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 48c | 62.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed No | 30c | 59.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05cc…1e1dbacked Yes | 38c | 59.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…2bdbbacked Yes | 69c | 58.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 57c | 56.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 47c | 53.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 67c | 52.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 73c | 51.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 45c | 51.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 29c | 51.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 51.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 50.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 24c | 50.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 50.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 50c | 47.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 24c | 45.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 67c | 45.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 79c | 45.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3286…1acdbacked No | 65c | 45.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 55c | 43.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…8849backed No | 65c | 43.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 45c | 40.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 40.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x903b…fdf1backed Yes | 44c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 69c | 37.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed Yes | 71c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 35c | 36.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 30c | 36.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 65c | 34.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 65c | 33.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.