Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75d5fefcf62523f028fd864c8202f068b0f1380daf6a2ca8d128c6a1317a4b1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 64c | 1,110$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.57 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 847.98$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 60c | 435.51$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.43 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 407.16$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 330.87$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…ffacbacked Yes | 39c | 305.68$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.67 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 78c | 276.06$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 261.19$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.81 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 33c | 214.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.82 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked No | 68c | 214.14$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.04 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 192.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 176$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 170.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 62c | 167.59$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 37c | 140$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 137.61$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 14c | 136.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 58c | 136.02$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.25 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 124.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 31c | 124.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.94 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 65c | 121.75$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 20c | 118.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 118.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 16c | 109.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.87 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 26c | 107.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.48 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 21c | 95.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 95.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 91.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 90.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Yes | 32c | 80.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 31c | 77.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 54c | 76.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 22c | 75.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 74.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 73.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 77c | 72.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked No | 75c | 68.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 42c | 59.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 26c | 59.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 56.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 60c | 53.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 66c | 52.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 26c | 50.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 50.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 54c | 49.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…4356backed Yes | 35c | 49.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 22c | 48.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 58c | 46.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 27c | 46.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 46.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 58c | 46.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 61c | 43.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 42.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 27c | 42.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 59c | 38.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 49c | 36.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 70c | 30.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 29.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 53c | 29.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 52c | 27.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 68c | 25.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 74c | 24.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 67c | 24.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 52c | 23.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 51c | 22.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 52c | 21.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…0a91backed Yes | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 67c | 19.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 19.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 66c | 18.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 17.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c0…22b4backed Yes | 60c | 16.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 15.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.