TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,788
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,426

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,788 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0050…cad1backed No64c1,110$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.575350.9%27 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes31c847.98$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.858,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes60c435.51$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.4353258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No22c407.16$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.662,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes59c330.87$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.376,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4266…ffacbacked Yes39c305.68$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.672161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes36c300$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19258152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes78c276.06$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.752,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes34c261.19$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.814,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes33c214.82$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.8229536.9%109 W · 186 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked No68c214.14$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.042454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+35.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c192.2$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No14c176$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.996219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes29c170.81$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.8410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No62c167.59$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.441,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes37c140$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.231936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No65c137.61$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.315,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes14c136.07$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.523436.3%85 W · 149 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No58c136.02$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.252,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No31c124.89$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.34,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes31c124.55$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.9486949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes65c121.75$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.591,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No20c118.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.544,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No43c118.52$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes16c109.59$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.871,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes26c107.88$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.4816937.3%63 W · 106 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0b5…e373backed Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6915128.5%43 W · 108 L-12.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes34c99.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.997331.5%23 W · 50 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed Yes21c95.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.428244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No27c95.01$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.094,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c91.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.739,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No65c90.31$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.561,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes35c85.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7112849.2%63 W · 65 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bed…bf63backed Yes32c80.09$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.466048.3%29 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e42…4938backed Yes24c80$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.638830.2%117 W · 271 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes31c77.42$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.722,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes54c76.98$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.772,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No22c75.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.841,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No43c74.49$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.327,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c73.05$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.355,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe978…ab29backed Yes77c72.51$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.726563.1%41 W · 24 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa234…f7ebbacked No75c68.92$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.923053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes36c60$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6627247.8%130 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No42c59.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.822,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x094a…a9d2backed Yes26c59.24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7429219.5%57 W · 235 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No41c56.84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.296,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No65c53.85$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3583360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes60c53.19$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.042,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb86b…aabfbacked No66c52.94$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9415868.4%108 W · 50 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed Yes26c50.62$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6242754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No69c50.03$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.471,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.846833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.031,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.585049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3215529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3217637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3534970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3242547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes54c49.67$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9218567.6%125 W · 60 L+28.7wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+34.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xe412…4356backed Yes35c49.06$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.896931.9%22 W · 47 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4149…8147backed Yes22c48.46$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.828444%37 W · 47 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No58c46.71$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.32,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes27c46.47$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9819427.3%53 W · 141 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes26c46.27$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2490734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes58c46.15$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3124569.8%171 W · 74 L+30.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes61c43.34$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.92,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No75c42.94$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.342,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf75f…b458backed Yes27c42.91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.24452.3%23 W · 21 L+6.1wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+12.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.853353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No59c38.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5933350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No49c36.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.812,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4df…e6cfbacked No70c30.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2713862.3%86 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No68c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.44,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa5c…a240backed Yes36c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.119552.8%103 W · 92 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No65c29.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.43,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…abffbacked Yes53c29.19$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5930665%199 W · 107 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No52c27.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.969262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes68c25.2$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.131,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No73c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2564859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No73c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2551568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked No74c24.85$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4728847.2%136 W · 152 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4941…b03cbacked No67c24.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3813363.9%85 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes52c23.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.42,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6243…e014backed No51c22.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4923243.5%101 W · 131 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No52c21.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.161,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No78c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.634853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.675546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x445f…229fbacked No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1014034.3%48 W · 92 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.631,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94a4…0a91backed Yes58c19.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.421643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa595…cdf1backed Yes67c19.96$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6615561.9%96 W · 59 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No69c19.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.572,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed No66c18.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2330849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No68c17.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.83,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20c0…22b4backed Yes60c16.71$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.663633.3%12 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No74c15.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.591,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed No73c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9521451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.