Serie A · resolved market
Torino FC vs. AC Milan: AC Milan O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f08a33a0d37c24fb7f9db8b83a098e31b04e9857126f4440193dfc76b6351d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 68c | 5,870$4,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,866.37 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 32c | 4,947$1,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.33 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb98…b473backed Over | 70c | 3,600$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 30c | 2,627$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.19 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 31c | 2,058$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.13 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 30c | 765.94$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.23 | 225 | 45.3%102 W · 123 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 32c | 700$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 26c | 418.37$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.59 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…7bd0backed Under | 31c | 317.3$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Under | 32c | 289.44$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.85 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…a6c2backed Over | 67c | 268.74$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 39c | 259$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.1 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 80c | 258.23$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a02…36b4backed Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 18c | 121.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…aac8backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 33c | 77.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 18c | 65.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…c91dbacked Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f1…953cbacked Over | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under | 40c | 49.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d41…6a2ebacked Under | 40c | 47.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47df…2183backed Over | 58c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…ad93backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 80c | 14.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: AC Milan O/U 0.5this page
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)Torino FC won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)Torino FC won
- Spread: Torino FC (-1.5)AC Milan won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: AC Milan O/U 1.5Over won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 0.5Over won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Over won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Over won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5Under won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5Under won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 5.5Under won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: Torino FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: Torino FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: Torino FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: Torino FC O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.