Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x876f23db65a9e34fdf9b6a25e9de44c0d191a5c0955970f382a9c9a10500434c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Torino FCof AC Milan, Torino FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Torino FC | 77c | 13,323$10,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,036.45 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed AC Milan | 25c | 10,982$2,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,709.88 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Torino FC | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed AC Milan | 25c | 3,132$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.74 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed AC Milan | 18c | 2,285$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed AC Milan | 38c | 2,209$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.25 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed AC Milan | 27c | 1,487$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed AC Milan | 18c | 1,089$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.05 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…1435backed Torino FC | 75c | 666.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…8586backed AC Milan | 5c | 576.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Torino FC | 65c | 437.27$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.42 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…23febacked AC Milan | 3c | 403.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Torino FC | 75c | 349.58$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 419 | 54.7%229 W · 190 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…aaf4backed AC Milan | 22c | 340.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked AC Milan | 26c | 307.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Torino FC | 75c | 297.8$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.6wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Torino FC | 74c | 192$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Torino FC | 73c | 180.82$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e1…c97fbacked AC Milan | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…ba93backed Torino FC | 75c | 146.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Torino FC | 75c | 135.06$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ec…a9c4backed Torino FC | 76c | 131.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Torino FC | 75c | 119.98$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked AC Milan | 75c | 115$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 310 | 51.6%160 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked AC Milan | 27c | 114.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe200…1b78backed AC Milan | 18c | 87.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…700fbacked AC Milan | 24c | 87.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed AC Milan | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked AC Milan | 25c | 82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed AC Milan | 27c | 77.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked AC Milan | 29c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Torino FC | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…2fc6backed Torino FC | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Torino FC | 75c | 59.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0e…2a0ebacked Torino FC | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbecf…0f51backed Torino FC | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed AC Milan | 27c | 39.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Torino FC | 74c | 27.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 274 | 53.3%146 W · 128 L | +18.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Torino FC | 74c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…c449backed Torino FC | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked AC Milan | 60c | 17.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Torino FC | 72c | 17.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Torino FC | 76c | 15.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Torino FC | 76c | 14.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.3wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)this page
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)Torino FC won
- Spread: Torino FC (-1.5)AC Milan won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: AC Milan O/U 0.5Over won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: AC Milan O/U 1.5Over won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 0.5Over won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Over won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Over won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5Under won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5Under won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: O/U 5.5Under won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: Torino FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: Torino FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: Torino FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Torino FC vs. AC Milan: Torino FC O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.