TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Upof Up, Down
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$216,375
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$220,156

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,375 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4060…3ec3backed Down52c56,399$29,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,129.7829264%187 W · 105 L+47.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+41.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x5c32…d685backed Up48c50,000$24,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,000450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Up47c5,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,639.9693840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x629b…b236backed Down50c3,600$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8002445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+118.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23fa…140bbacked Up58c3,392$1,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,407.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bc8…adf7backed Up34c2,524$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,664.388459.5%50 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Down47c2,100$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.994254.8%23 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05dd…e2afbacked Up37c2,079$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,31714143.3%61 W · 80 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Up33c1,892$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.654122%9 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Down49c1,857$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.831,27724.3%310 W · 967 L-58.2wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf60e…936dbacked Down46c1,801$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.463641.7%15 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc5b…5443backed Up55c1,800$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8102100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a3…a4e1backed Up37c1,557$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.722100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+131.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c93…3ff6backed Up49c1,550$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.51353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e13…e968backed Up49c1,500$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x500e…15f9backed Down50c1,400$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2651…3471backed Up37c1,323$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.4830443.4%132 W · 172 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Up5c1,142$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.2121011.9%25 W · 185 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1c9…6872backed Up48c999.99$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.427960.8%48 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4867…a6f8backed Up58c972.77$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.849758.8%57 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8808…164fbacked Up55c862.99$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.352100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10da…81c4backed Up48c824$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.48450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31dd…3c7abacked Down43c757.88$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.31425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-67.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15fb…252dbacked Up56c685.65$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.133056.7%17 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc044…2d08backed Down50c658.52$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.132055%11 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9c0…c45cbacked Down40c599.14$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f0…0a1bbacked Down64c540.47$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.930%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Up47c499.99$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2659422.3%21 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Down56c491.94$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.387847.4%37 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x266e…17e5backed Up58c447.65$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.961030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ca…0f21backed Up49c400$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x269e…4dcbbacked Down61c342.27$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.56666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+46%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7151…4404backed Down52c340$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.951241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec25…dec6backed Down50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef34…9644backed Down51c300$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1541010%1 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-81.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x506f…e8bbbacked Down65c300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1952245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfac2…f35fbacked Down56c300$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.81442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e68…826bbacked Down41c294.51$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.591442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Up35c207.69$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13512126.4%32 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked Up48c205.93$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.883450%17 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e90…f911backed Down39c204.77$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d66…af0dbacked Down50c201.46$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.931040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08e0…bfdfbacked Up51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.37per pick50cpaid+69.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc3df…91a3backed Down53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10630%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c12…3d74backed Up51c200$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41f3…844ebacked Up48c199.84$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.1330738.8%119 W · 188 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Down29c195.83$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.886129.5%18 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Up48c184$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.684339.5%17 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf40f…c3bcbacked Up49c132$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9811736.8%43 W · 74 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a57…fda1backed Up35c125$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.25540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x547c…0844backed Up37c121.07$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.88742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a48…08c5backed Up50c120$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+98.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x06ce…0b8bbacked Down59c117.06$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.388844.3%39 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ed1…908cbacked Down51c116.68$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.32728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-56.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4528…24dcbacked Down53c110.15$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.511675%12 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+41.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x741e…9b87backed Down53c100.16$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.08837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f9…c50bbacked Up45c100.01$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa276…2613backed Up59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick53cpaid+93.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Up69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6484…5dc7backed Up70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59db…2e36backed Down47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x639d…4afbbacked Down50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe77d…7383backed Down44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b6f…09d5backed Down50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-55.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3550…f7ffbacked Down53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb51a…4f53backed Up48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6349…6713backed Down44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-50%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x72b0…1579backed Up51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90a3…23ccbacked Down51c90$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7efd…caedbacked Down43c88.39$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.01825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18d8…c364backed Down54c82.63$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.62966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up50c76.28$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.141,04834.5%362 W · 686 L-94.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5a1a…6fc0backed Down45c75.85$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd640…480cbacked Down42c73.79$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.633941%16 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0d…6c84backed Up75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabcf…17b7backed Down53c62.15$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.983046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…13e5backed Down52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262825%7 W · 21 L-6.6wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-50.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x8246…33b6backed Down50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf07…fbe5backed Up55c47.55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c88…383abacked Up49c46.84$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Down42c42.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.067526.7%20 W · 55 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4568…619dbacked Up35c42.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.863100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+123%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Down60c39.52$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5420624.8%51 W · 155 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Down44c38.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.89933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+119.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe1a…2a20backed Down62c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+167.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Down60c30.73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.442339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x395e…34c0backed Up50c30.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-39%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x388b…ac5abacked Up61c21.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.