MLB · resolved market
Nationals vs. Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fde1c1392357ccdd45046b10165efb38ba130a98a309228cdb3a27037338722
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nationalsof Nationals, Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce1f…41a9backed Nationals | 42c | 54,216$22,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,234.21 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Mariners | 67c | 15,184$10,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,173.3 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mariners | 30c | 14,484$4,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,294.42 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Nationals | 62c | 12,208$7,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,676.37 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Nationals | 33c | 11,111$3,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,444.35 | 173 | 51.4%89 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Mariners | 67c | 10,810$7,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,211.39 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Mariners | 39c | 8,204$3,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,235.18 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Mariners | 41c | 8,074$3,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,312.34 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Mariners | 65c | 7,485$4,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,865.17 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a5…9996backed Mariners | 0c | 6,878$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Mariners | 65c | 6,800$4,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,420 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mariners | 66c | 4,019$2,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,637.92 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Mariners | 35c | 3,741$1,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,307.27 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3a…da24backed Nationals | 34c | 1,618$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Mariners | 41c | 1,475$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.68 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf90d…0b4dbacked Mariners | 45c | 1,326$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Mariners | 7c | 1,220$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Mariners | 2c | 1,050$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 505 | 3.8%19 W · 486 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Mariners | 46c | 1,000$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458 | 255 | 50.6%129 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Mariners | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Mariners | 4c | 999.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…3a6cbacked Mariners | 65c | 900$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…4604backed Mariners | 66c | 848$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d2…c66abacked Mariners | 66c | 769$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Mariners | 66c | 758.97$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.92 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Mariners | 4c | 669.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb26…94ddbacked Mariners | 7c | 650$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 123 | 14.6%18 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Mariners | 21c | 610$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 258 | 35.3%91 W · 167 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Mariners | 65c | 586.42$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.17 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Mariners | 40c | 516.46$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…cfddbacked Mariners | 4c | 510$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Nationals | 34c | 499.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Mariners | 65c | 348.51$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.56 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Mariners | 49c | 302.2$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.54 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nationals | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Nationals | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Nationals | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 1,012 | 51.2%518 W · 494 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…c807backed Nationals | 64c | 285.49$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Mariners | 66c | 272.77$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.03 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Mariners | 65c | 238.33$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.89 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Nationals | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Mariners | 68c | 220.59$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Mariners | 29c | 203.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 192 | 33.3%64 W · 128 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Mariners | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 138 | 48.6%67 W · 71 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c5…9a0ebacked Mariners | 40c | 170.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.22 | 708 | 41.4%293 W · 415 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…d651backed Nationals | 40c | 170.4$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Mariners | 44c | 148.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…aae3backed Nationals | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 444 | 43%191 W · 253 L | +21.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Nationals | 32c | 99.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Mariners | 65c | 99.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Mariners | 43c | 84.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…01dabacked Nationals | 33c | 75.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Nationals | 32c | 75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Mariners | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Mariners | 66c | 74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Nationals | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Mariners | 67c | 70.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6f…3838backed Nationals | 57c | 69.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 405 | 47.4%192 W · 213 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Nationals | 33c | 63.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Nationals | 32c | 53.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…0775backed Mariners | 67c | 49.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Nationals | 35c | 48.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4771…3a3bbacked Nationals | 37c | 48.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nationals | 33c | 42.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 1,153 | 49.2%567 W · 586 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Mariners | 67c | 40.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Nationals | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5b…69ebbacked Mariners | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Nationals | 34c | 36.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…522fbacked Nationals | 61c | 36.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…c293backed Mariners | 67c | 35.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Nationals | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1,302 | 56.7%738 W · 564 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f26…9179backed Nationals | 33c | 32.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9599…be88backed Mariners | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 255 | 11.8%30 W · 225 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa954…b8edbacked Mariners | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed5…e9bfbacked Mariners | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d5…312abacked Mariners | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…2e8fbacked Mariners | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99e8…a75abacked Mariners | 67c | 24.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Nationals | 60c | 20.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 206 | 49.5%102 W · 104 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45f1…8994backed Mariners | 66c | 18.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.